COIN Stock Prediction as Crypto Crash Odds Jump as Expert Sees Inflation Hitting 3.4%

The recent COIN stock price recovery has stalled at the important resistance level at $200 as concerns about the crypto industry remained amid the ongoing Iran war. Coinbase could reverse its recent gains as odds of a crypto crash remain elevated.

Crypto Crash Odds are Rising as the Iran War Drags On

Coinbase stock price has pulled back from its highest point this month as the Iran war leads to substantial volatility in the crude oil market.

Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $100 and $95 on Thursday after Mojitaba Khamenei, the new Iranian Supreme Leader, vowed revenge against the US and Iran. The statement is a sign that he expects a longer war than President Donald Trump plans. 

Such a move means that crude oil prices could surge to $200 and above as Iran plans to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. Trump prefers oil prices remaining at $50.

These fears explain why prices have risen after the IEA said its members would release 400 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves. Oil also remained elevated after a report that Trump was considering suspending the Jones Act to tame the surge.

As a result, analysts believe that these prices will lead to an inflation surge in the United States, making it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In a note, Kobeissi, a popular analyst, predicted that inflation would jump to 3.4% if oil prices remained above $95. Data released this week showed that US inflation rose 2.4% in February.

Soaring crude oil prices and inflation would be bearish for the crypto market and the COIN stock price. While Coinbase is expanding to the stock and prediction markets, its core business is still in crypto. 

As such, a drop in crypto prices mean that its transaction volume will be under pressure, as we saw in the last report. The data showed that its transaction revenue rose to $982 million in Q4’25 from $1.5 billion in Q4’24.

Polymarket data shows that the odds of a crypto crash have risen. The poll shows that the odds of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 this year rose to 71%.

COIN Stock Price Prediction: Technical Analysis 

The daily chart shows that the Coinbase stock price rebounded in the past few days, moving from a low of $145 in February to a high of $213.

It remains below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Also, it has formed an island reversal pattern, which happens when an asset makes an up or down gap. In this case, the gap happened on March 4 and the stock is about to fill it.

The stock is also forming the handle section of the inverted cup-and-handle pattern, a common bearish continuation sign in technical analysis.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level at $145, the lower side of the cup. A drop below that level will point to further downside, potentially to $100.