USD/INR has recovered its daily losses and is trading near an all-time high of 92.90 in the previous session. However, the pair faced challenges as the Indian Rupee (INR) strengthened, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely selling US Dollars (USD) to support the domestic currency amid rising Oil price concerns, traders told Reuters.
Traders expect the INR to keep drifting lower as energy prices stay volatile and foreign investors continue pulling money from local stocks. Oil prices remain the key factor shaping sentiment across markets, including FX, bonds, and equities.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower after surging more than 9% in the previous session, trading near $94.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices declined after Chris Bowen, Australia’s Energy Minister, said the country would release up to 762 million litres of fuel from reserves after easing stockholding rules to address supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.
Oil prices may continue to rise due to shipping disruptions through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in his first public remarks since taking office that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should remain a “tool to pressure the enemy.” Khamenei also warned that all US military bases in the region should be closed immediately or face potential attacks.
The USD/INR pair also strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm as futures markets and economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting, with the benchmark federal funds rate currently at 3.50%–3.75%.
Meanwhile, traders await another key US inflation release. January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — is due later in the day, though it will not reflect the impact of the Iran war. Markets will also monitor the fourth-quarter US GDP growth and March consumer confidence.
US inflation data suggested price pressures remain relatively contained, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep policy steady in the near term. Analysts also noted that the latest inflation figures do not yet fully capture the recent surge in oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions.
The February US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday showed inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and 2.4% year-over-year (YoY), largely in line with market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR tests channel’s upper boundary, all-time highs near 93.00
USD/INR trades around 92.70 at the time of writing on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair tests the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
The near-term bias is bullish as price holds well above both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which track an established advance from the 90.60 area. Momentum remains firm with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71 within overbought territory.
The USD/INR pair tests the ascending channel’s upper boundary at the all-time high of 92.90, reached on March 12. On the downside, primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 92.35. A break below this level would weaken the short-term momentum and expose the 50-day EMA at 91.24, followed by the channel’s lower boundary near 91.00.
USD/INR: Daily ChartUS Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.26% | 0.51% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.16% | 0.40% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.07% | 0.15% | 0.38% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.22% | 0.44% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.43% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.15% | -0.22% | -0.20% | 0.23% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.51% | -0.40% | -0.38% | -0.44% | -0.43% | -0.23% | -0.43% | |
| INR | -0.18% | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.18% | 0.43% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
RBI FAQs
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is “..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-inches-lower-after-reaching-fresh-highs-202603130510
