Wall Street is booming, but most Americans still feel like the economy is in a recession

Wall Street just wrapped a record-smashing week. Stocks are riding high, and corporate earnings are beating expectations. Every company tied to anything remotely related to AI is swimming in cash. Analysts are hiking price targets almost every other day.

Interest rates, while still high, are easing. But if you talk to anyone on Main Street, it doesn’t feel like a recovery, it feels like a recession.

According to Semafor, Liz Hoffman called it a “vibe-spansion.” She said during Joe Biden’s presidency, people felt worse than the numbers showed a “vibecession.”

Now, under Donald Trump, businesses are charging forward with confidence while households are dragging behind. Investors are optimistic. Consumers are drained. The job market is starting to weaken, inflation is stuck, and purchasing power hasn’t caught up.

Trump pushes tariffs while sentiment tanks

The market exploded after Trump returned to office last November. The rally was fueled by hope, especially from voters who believed he could steer the economy. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index shot up with the S&P.

But then February came. Trump began pushing his “Liberation Day” tariff plans again, and sentiment collapsed. By April and May, that same index dropped to 52.2, a number not seen since inflation peaked in 2022.

By Friday, sentiment was back at that low point. Americans aren’t buying into the optimism on TV. Yahoo Finance’s Emma Ockerman reported that 65% of Americans now think unemployment will rise in the next 12 months.

The last time that many people felt this uncertain was during the Great Recession. A separate study said most people don’t think they’ll be able to get another job if they lose the one they have.

Trump’s trade policies are still on everyone’s mind. Joanne Hsu from the University of Michigan said 60% of those interviewed mentioned tariffs unprompted. This isn’t just noise from financial commentators. People feel the hit now, not later. Wall Street may price in the future, but households live in the present.

Despite that, Trump is still calling it the “best economy we’ve ever had.” He told Fox & Friends on Friday that trillions in promised corporate investments and surging markets prove his policies are working.

Behind the scenes, White House aides admit the message isn’t landing. Grocery prices are still rising. Wages haven’t caught up to inflation. The pain from Biden’s cost-of-living spike is still in the rearview.

White House leans on tax cuts to change the conversation

Republicans avoided a tax increase earlier this year through Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, but the Congressional Budget Office says it’ll have little effect before the 2028 election. The impact, they say, is dulled by Trump’s tariffs and immigration restrictions.

Stephen Moore, one of Trump’s outside economic advisers, said, “There’s a reality and there’s a perception.” He told reporters from the Oval Office that people are worried about food prices and day-to-day expenses, even if the numbers look fine.

Meanwhile, real wages (adjusted for inflation) are climbing but still not back to pre-Biden levels. Labor Department data shows increases since early 2023, but the White House doesn’t expect a full recovery by Election Day.

The White House is now rebranding the tax bill as the “Working Families Tax Cut.” They’re banking on multiple rate cuts and rising wages to help Americans “feel” the recovery.

Trump pollster John McLaughlin said: “It’s going to take some time, but as those policies percolate, it’ll be a sense of relief compared to what the last four years were like.”

Trump’s team is also looking at other angles. If the Supreme Court kills the tariffs, aides believe businesses will benefit from the billions in duties refunded. If the court upholds them, they say the worst is over and future deficit cuts will cheer markets.

The White House is watching voter sentiment too. The current gap between Americans who think the country is on the right track versus the wrong track is 15 points.

In Biden’s 2022 midterm cycle, that number was 31 points. Republicans are gaining voter registrations, while Democrats are still deep in the red; 27 points underwater compared to 13 for the GOP.

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