Bitcoin And Crypto Brace For Market-Shaking Fed Decision

Bitcoin enters a macro-heavy week with the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, updated economic projections and a Powell press conference all landing on Wednesday, September 17—events that have historically set the tone for risk assets into quarter-end. As of early Monday in Europe, Bitcoin trades near $116,500 while Ether changes hands around $4,660, with positioning subdued ahead of the Fed.

Bitcoin And Crypto Brace For Fed Rate Cut

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes September 16–17, with the policy statement due at 2:00 p.m. ET (20:00 CEST) on Wednesday, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (20:30 CEST). The meeting includes a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the “dot plot” of policymakers’ rate paths—quarterly materials that markets parse line by line for clues on the pace and extent of easing through 2025–2026.

Expectations are unusually one-sided: futures markets imply that a 25-basis-point rate cut is the base case. In recent days, sell-side previews and market pricing have converged on that outcome, with only a small tail risk assigned to a larger move.The larger debate is what follows: whether Powell leans into a sequence of steady trims through year-end or emphasizes a slower, data-dependent path if inflation proves sticky.

The dot plot is the fulcrum for Bitcoin, crypto and broader risk. In June, officials’ projections set the prior baseline; Wednesday’s update will show how many 2025 cuts the median participant now “pencils in,” the distribution (how clustered or split the Committee is), and the long-run neutral rate (r*).

A lower 2025 median and softer inflation/PCE tracks would signal easier financial conditions into 2026; a shallower path or higher r* would do the opposite. The press conference then becomes a second-order catalyst: if Powell emphasizes labor-market cooling and policy lags, it could validate the market’s easing trajectory; if he highlights upside inflation risks or financial-stability considerations, it could cap the rally in duration and risk.

Balance-sheet policy matters for crypto liquidity, too. After tapering quantitative tightening through 2024, the Fed further slowed runoff this spring. As the Fed states, “Beginning on April 1, 2025, the Committee reduced the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion,” a mechanical easing of QT’s drag that has incrementally supported dollar liquidity conditions. That backdrop helps explain why the combination of rate cuts plus slower runoff is being read as net supportive for high-beta assets—provided the dots don’t undercut the path.

BoE And BoJ Decisions Follow

It’s not just the Fed on deck. The Bank of England announces Thursday, September 18 (12:00 BST; 13:00 CEST), with recent reporting suggesting no immediate rate move but an increased focus on scaling back the pace of quantitative tightening amid gilt-market sensitivity. Any change in the speed or composition of QT—or surprises in the guidance—feeds directly into global rates and the dollar, two variables tightly correlated with crypto’s short-term swings.

The Bank of Japan follows on Thursday–Friday (September 18–19, Tokyo), always a potential volatility injector for FX. While the policy path in Tokyo is its own narrative, BOJ adjustments to bond-buying or guidance can ripple into US yields and the DXY via yen moves, indirectly affecting crypto risk appetite. The BOJ’s meeting dates and release schedule underscore the timing overlap with the Fed and BoE.

For crypto, the transmission channel is straightforward: lower policy rates and a softer dot-plot path tend to ease financial conditions, pressure real yields and the dollar, and widen the appetite for duration and high-beta exposures—including Bitcoin and large-cap altcoins.

Conversely, a hawkish surprise—fewer cuts signaled for 2025, a higher long-run rate, or a press-conference emphasis on inflation risk—would likely firm the dollar and cap the rebound in risk, leaving crypto vulnerable to a post-event fade. In a week where the Fed, BoE, and BoJ decisions compress into 48 hours, the macro impulse will dominate micro narratives.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $115,733.