The Iran war is now entering twenty days and until yesterday, the conflict looked like a conventional military standoff with strikes, retaliation and a rise in oil prices. This has effectively changed this week. Iran International reported that Iranian lawmakers are proposing a bill to charge transit tolls on every ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passageway in the Gulf responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Adding to this, an adviser to the Supreme Leader has also signaled that “a new regime for the Strait” would follow the war, one where Tehran gets to decide who passes, who pays and on what terms.
Uncertainty around the region is further compounded by the fact that Iran has rejected all ceasefire talks. Simultaneously, six nations, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan, issued their first joint statement calling for the Strait to be opened, but with caveats large enough to render the coalition largely symbolic for now: no military deployment without a ceasefire in place and parliamentary approval from each member state. Shipments passing through Hormuz have collapsed since the start with reports from Euronews suggesting that only around 90 tankers have cleared the region since March 1. This development means that the conflict poses a new risk of shifting from who controls the Strait militarily to who controls it economically and the question of how a sanctioned state gets paid in such a situation.
From Blockade to Toll Road: Iran’s Strategic Pivot
Iran’s strategy in using the Strait of Hormuz as a lever has shifted in a dramatic way this week with news of Tehran actively pursuing to pass a legislation that would require all nations to pay transit tolls and taxes for shipping through the Strait. This was put forth not as a hostile measure but rather as a fee to be paid for the security that Iran would provide. As lawmaker Somayeh Rafiei put it, “the security of the strait will be established, and countries must pay a tax in return”. This news dropped around the same time as an advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hinted that this shift is not intended to be a temporary measure. Such a reality would enable Iran to allow or restrict access based on who they are aligned with geopolitically.
The potential of this pivot being seen as a possible ceasefire agreement was almost immediately thwarted by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and adding that “the United States must be held accountable” as reported by the Time.
What makes this pivot significant is the logic behind it. A permanent military blockade is unsustainable, it invites escalation, drains resources, and gives the coalition forming against Iran a cleaner justification to act. A toll regime, on the other hand, preserves Iran’s strongest bargaining chip while replacing brute force with institutional leverage. The numbers on the ground reflect how much control Tehran already has: only 90 tankers have passed through the Strait since March 1, almost entirely vessels from India and China that received explicit Iranian permission. The blockade is already functioning as a selective access system. Formalizing it through legislation doesn’t change the reality on the water, it just gives Iran a legal and economic framework to sustain it indefinitely, without the optics of an outright military standoff.
Six Nations Form a Coalition but It’s Not Ready to Act
This week also saw the first signs of a coordinated response taking shape, albeit still not decisive. Al Jazeera reported that the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan have put out a joint statement that highlights a “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage” through the Strait. The statement also calls for “an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations”.
Despite this joint statement being the first real signal from nations coordinating toward a plan rather than pure diplomatic concern, the willingness to act seems to be far away at this stage. For instance, Italy has emphasized that this is “not a war mission” and stated that it would not enter the Strait without a ceasefire coming into effect. Similarly, Germany will not act until a parliamentary approval comes in and Japan has signaled that it is not currently considering any maritime operations.
Therefore, operationally, the coalition is still not ready to act and this, in turn, is creating a deadlock while adding to the evermounting uncertainty around the region.
Iran is attempting to impose economic control through tolls, while the coalition is pushing for free navigation without committing to enforce it militarily. With Iran rejecting a ceasefire and the coalition unwilling to act without one, Hormuz remains locked between two incompatible endgames.
The market is already pricing in this uncertainty as these events develop. Brent Crude rose to a high of $119 per barrel yesterday and continues to trade above $110 at the time of writing.
The Sanctions Payment Problem: Why Crypto May Be the Only Answer
If Iran’s toll regime becomes a reality, the immediate question will be regarding payment. Iran is a sanctioned state, cut out from the global financial system, how then would they be able to collect any payment from the rest of the world? This is where crypto comes into the picture. Currently there is no clean way for most of the world to pay Iran for transit. This is not a new problem by any means though. Venezuela has used stablecoin rails to collect its oil revenue with nearly 80% via USDT. Tolls on every ship passing through a passageway that accounts for nearly 20% of the global energy supply would be the largest real world use case stablecoin payments we’ve ever seen.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market’s resilience since the war broke out has also not gone unnoticed. Bloomberg has described Bitcoin as an “an oasis of calm” in the midst of an active war and when you look at the numbers, this statement holds some truth to it. Despite a decline post-FOMC of around, BTC is still above the $70K mark and is still outperforming Gold which has had its worst week since 1983, down roughly 10% from the highs to lows and currently over 12% down since the conflict began. Equity markets have performed in a similar wane as well with the S&P 500 down over 4% since the start of the month.
If the toll bill is enforced, the reality is that crypto becomes a viable solution. This is not to say that Iran will use crypto, but the structural reality exists. The sanctions payment problem has no traditional solution, and in every recent case where states needed to transact outside the dollar system, crypto has emerged as the only viable workaround.
What to Watch: The Three Paths from Here
Three distinct paths are forming from here, each carrying a very different set of implications for energy markets and crypto. The first is that Iran’s toll regime becomes a functioning reality, friendly nations like China and India, already operating within Iranian-permitted shipping lanes, formalize payment arrangements in non-dollar currencies or stablecoins, while Western nations refuse and Hormuz effectively splits into a two-tier shipping lane. Oil stays above $100, the sanctions payment infrastructure built around crypto expands, and Bitcoin’s role in geopolitical finance becomes harder to dismiss.
The second path is that the six-nation coalition moves beyond joint statements and into actual deployment following a ceasefire, Hormuz reopens under international escort, and oil pulls back to the $80–90 range. In that scenario, Bitcoin loses the war outperformance narrative but gains a different tailwind entirely, lower energy prices ease inflation, the Fed gets room to cut, and liquidity returns to risk assets.
The third path, and arguably the most likely given where both sides currently stand, is continued deadlock: Iran holds the blockade, rejects any ceasefire, the tolls bill stalls in the legislative process, and oil grinds above $100 indefinitely while both sides continue targeting energy infrastructure. Gold keeps failing as a safe haven. Bitcoin holds above $70K as the only major asset that has consistently outperformed since the conflict began.
For BTC specifically, the next 48 hours matter. The post-FOMC dip window, which runs roughly through today, is overlapping directly with the Hormuz developments, compressing two major macro catalysts into the same narrow timeframe. If $70K holds as support and the situation around the Strait shows any sign of stabilization, even the ambiguous kind that comes with a toll framework rather than a full reopening, Bitcoin is likely retesting $75K in short order.
If $70K breaks on further escalation or a new round of infrastructure strikes, the next meaningful support sits in the $67K region. The war started as a military event. It’s becoming an economic and financial one. Bitcoin’s performance across both phases has made one thing increasingly difficult to argue against, that crypto’s role in how the world manages geopolitical risk is no longer a thesis. It’s a track record.
Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/iran-hormuz-toll-road-oil-payments/
