Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Falls 53% From Highs — Is the Sell-Off Overdone?

TLDR

• Robinhood stock is down 39% since the start of 2026, trading around $70.27 per share
• Crypto transaction revenue fell 38% in Q4 2025, raising concerns about the company’s revenue base
• February 2026 trading data showed equity volumes down 14%, options down 10%, and event contracts down 22% vs January
• Mizuho cut its price target from $135 to $110 but kept an Outperform rating; Bank of America and Goldman Sachs also trimmed their targets
• Wall Street consensus remains broadly bullish, with an average 12-month price target near $115–$119

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has had a rough start to 2026. The stock is down 39% year-to-date and currently trades at $70.27 — more than 53% below its 52-week high of $152.46 reached in October 2025.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

The recent slide comes after a strong 2025 for the company. Full-year revenue hit roughly $4.5 billion, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.28 billion — up about 45% year over year. Diluted EPS for the full year came in at $2.05. Net deposits for 2025 reached around $68 billion, and Robinhood Gold subscriptions hit a record high.

But 2026 has brought a cooler trading climate. A monthly operating update released on March 12 showed February funded customer accounts at 27.4 million — up about 140,000 from January and around 1.74 million from a year earlier. Net deposits over the trailing twelve months reached $67.8 billion, implying around 36% annual growth.

The trading numbers told a different story. Equity notional trading volumes fell 14% from January 2026. Options contracts traded dropped 10%. The event contracts business saw a 22% fall in average daily activity. The broader market was also weak in the same period, adding pressure on the stock.

A key concern for analysts is the company’s revenue model. A large portion of income comes from crypto trading and options — both highly cyclical segments. Crypto transaction revenue fell 38% in Q4 2025, which fed into worries about the sustainability of the revenue base heading into 2026.

Analysts Cut Targets, but Keep Buy Ratings

Mizuho was among the first to respond. The firm cut its 12-month price target on HOOD from $135 to $110 in March, citing softer retail trading, lower crypto prices, and a slightly weaker revenue outlook for fiscal 2026. It trimmed its 2026 revenue forecast by 2% but kept an Outperform rating.

Bank of America cut its target from $147 to $122 in late February while keeping a Buy rating. Goldman Sachs also moved its target from $130 to $111, also maintaining a Buy. Both firms pointed to still-solid underlying operating metrics.

The range of analyst views is wide. At one end, Citizens has a $180 price target. At the other, J.P. Morgan sits at just $47. That gap reflects the debate over how durable Robinhood’s growth is, and how sensitive the business remains to swings in crypto and retail trading.

The broader consensus is still positive. Most of the 20 to 28 analysts covering the stock have a Buy or equivalent rating. The average 12-month price target sits near $115 to $119 — which, at current price levels, implies significant upside.

Stock Has Been Volatile All Year

Robinhood stock has made moves greater than 5% on 49 separate occasions over the past year. The latest drop of around 5.3% came after analysts lowered price targets and flagged concerns about trading trends.

Seven days before that, the stock fell 3.8% after the February operating data was released showing the broad slowdown in trading activity.

The stock fell a further 5.3% in a recent session as analysts digested the operating data and revised their forecasts.

For context, an investor who put $1,000 into Robinhood at its IPO in July 2021 would have roughly $2,018 today — still a positive return, but well off the highs.

As of the most recent data, funded customer accounts stand at 27.4 million with trailing twelve-month net deposits of $67.8 billion.

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