Optimistic rates could go down by end-2026

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that they are currently in an intense moment with a lot in the balance.

Key takeaways

“At best inflation stalled, Fed is waiting for that to go away; now there is a new shock.”

“It will be a tough moment for the Fed.”

“Optimistic that by the end of 2026 rates could go down, but need proof on inflation.”

“Gas prices have a high impact on household expectations; Fed has to hope it does not have a lasting impact.”

“The unemployment rate has not gone up much; job creation may not be a good measure of slack.”

“Inflation now seems the great risk.”

“Nobody can tell the Fed what is going to happen in the conflict.”

Market reaction

The US Dollar (USD) Index stays under modest bearish pressure and fluctuates slightly below 99.50 following these comments.