The number of digital banking customers worldwide is expected to exceed 3.6 billion by 2028, according to Juniper Research. That would represent roughly 45% of the global population and more than half of all adults. In 2023, the figure stood at approximately 2.5 billion. The projected growth of over a billion new digital banking users in five years reflects how quickly consumer behaviour is changing.
The term “digital banking customers” covers a wide range. It includes people who use their traditional bank’s mobile app to check their balance, and it includes people whose only bank is a neobank they downloaded from an app store. The common thread is that the primary interaction with financial services happens through a screen rather than a branch.
What Is Driving the Growth
The most direct driver is smartphone adoption. GSMA’s Mobile Economy report counted 6.4 billion smartphone connections globally in 2024, up from 5.3 billion in 2020. Each new smartphone user is a potential digital banking customer. In many emerging markets, people are getting smartphones before they get bank accounts, which means their first financial experience is digital by default.
Traditional banks are themselves driving the shift. Most large banks now treat their mobile apps as the primary customer channel, not a supplement to branches. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo each report that more than 70% of their retail customer interactions happen through digital channels. HSBC, Barclays, and Lloyds Banking Group report similar numbers in the UK. These banks are investing billions in their digital platforms, partly to serve existing customers and partly to compete with neobanks.
Branch closures are accelerating the transition. In the UK, more than 5,000 bank branches have closed since 2015, according to data from Which?. The US saw over 3,000 branch closures in 2023 alone, according to S&P Global. As branches disappear, customers who previously relied on in-person banking are forced to move online. For many, the transition is permanent.
Neobanks Are Adding Customers at Scale
Digital-only banks are a significant part of the 3.6 billion projection. Nubank, the world’s largest neobank by customer count, surpassed 100 million customers in 2024. Revolut reached 45 million users globally. Chime has over 20 million users in the US. Monzo has roughly 9 million in the UK. KakaoBank in South Korea has over 20 million users.
These companies are growing faster than traditional banks because their acquisition costs are lower and their onboarding is faster. Opening an account with Nubank or Revolut takes less than 10 minutes. There are no branch visits, no paper forms, and no waiting periods. According to estimates from Accenture, the average customer acquisition cost for a neobank is $5 to $30, compared to $200 to $350 for a traditional bank that relies on branch-based acquisition.
The retention question is more complicated. Neobanks have historically had lower engagement rates than traditional banks, partly because many customers use them as secondary accounts. A person might keep their salary deposit at a traditional bank while using a neobank for specific functions like international transfers or budgeting tools. Neobanks that can convert secondary account holders into primary banking relationships capture significantly more revenue per customer.
Emerging Markets Will Drive Most of the Growth
The majority of the billion-plus new digital banking customers expected by 2028 will come from emerging markets, not developed ones. Developed markets like the US, UK, and Western Europe already have digital banking penetration rates above 60%. The growth ceiling is closer.
India is the single largest growth market. With a population of 1.4 billion and digital banking penetration still below 50%, there is room for hundreds of millions of new digital banking users. The government’s Jan Dhan Yojana programme opened over 500 million basic bank accounts, many of which are now being linked to mobile banking applications. UPI provides the payment infrastructure. Companies like PhonePe, Paytm, and Google Pay India are building the consumer experience layer on top.
Indonesia, with a population of 275 million and digital banking penetration of roughly 30%, is another large opportunity. Bank Jago, a digital bank backed by GoTo Group, has grown rapidly. Sea Group’s SeaMoney and Grab’s GrabPay are also expanding their banking services. The Philippines, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are at earlier stages but show similar potential.
Africa presents the largest long-term opportunity. The continent has 1.4 billion people, the youngest median age of any continent (roughly 19 years old), and the lowest banking penetration rate globally. Mobile money has already reached hundreds of millions of Africans through services like M-Pesa, but full digital banking services (savings accounts, credit, insurance) have much lower penetration. Companies like TymeBank in South Africa, FairMoney in Nigeria, and Wave in West Africa are building digital banking products for this market.
What 3.6 Billion Means for the Industry
A world with 3.6 billion digital banking customers changes the economics of banking in several ways.
Branch networks become even less economically viable. Banks that maintain large branch footprints will face increasing pressure to close locations as the share of digitally active customers grows. The cost savings from branch closures are significant. Digital banking solutions reduce per-customer servicing costs by 50% to 70% compared to branch-based models, according to industry estimates.
Data becomes a more important competitive asset. Digital banking generates far more data per customer than branch-based banking. Every transaction, every login, every app interaction creates a data point. Banks and neobanks that can use this data effectively to personalise products, assess credit risk, and detect fraud will have a significant advantage over those that cannot.
The competition for deposits intensifies. Traditional banks have historically relied on inertia to retain deposits. Customers kept their money at the same bank for decades because switching was inconvenient. Digital banking makes switching easier. A customer can open a new account and transfer their direct deposit in minutes. This means banks must compete more actively on interest rates, fees, product quality, and user experience to retain deposits.
Cross-selling becomes the primary revenue strategy. With customer acquisition costs falling and switching costs declining, the economics of digital banking favour platforms that can sell multiple products to each customer. SoFi’s path to profitability was built on this model: acquire a customer through student loan refinancing, then cross-sell a checking account, investment account, and personal loan. The companies that can replicate this across different markets will capture a disproportionate share of the 3.6 billion digital banking customer opportunity.
