Bullish bets on Bitfinex surge

Yes, you read the title right. The number of bullish bitcoin BTC$66,212.31 wagers, the so-called BTC/USD long positions, on the OG exchange Bitfinex has hit multi-month highs.

But, bulls, hold your cheers, as this metric has become a textbook “contrary indicator” over the years, with upswings characterizing bitcoin’s price downtrends.

Highest since 2023

The number of BTC/USD longs has increased to 79,343, the highest since November 2023, according to data source CoinDesk.

Rising bullish bets usually signal growing upside pressure – a positive read. But historically, the market has done the exact opposite, falling just as Mother Nature turns sunny forecasts into storms.

For instance, the number of BTC/USD longs rose 30% in the final quarter of 2025 as BTC’s spot price tanked 23% to $87,550. Similar patterns have been observed in recent years, as seen below.

BTC’s price bottoms when Bitfinex longs peak – and rallies as they decline. Price tops (like October) hit when longs bottom out, then prices slide as longs climb.

Analysts have previously explained this conundrum by saying the crowd is usually clueless, so bet against them.

So, the latest uptick in longs suggests that bitcoin’s choppy price action between $65,000 and $75,000 could soon end with a sell-off, deepening the downtrend that began above $100,000 last year. It goes without saying that past results are no guarantee of future results.

That said, other factors, such as reports that the U.S. is planning to deploy troops to the ongoing war in Iran, the oil price shock, and fears of a Fed rate hike, also favour the bearish case.

At press time, bitcoin traded around $66,400, according to CoinDesk data.