BYD Stock: Company Targets 1.5 Million Exports in 2026, Up 15% on Previous Target

TLDR

• BYD’s net profit dropped 19% in 2025 to CNY 32.6 billion — the first profit decline in four years.
• Global revenue rose 3.5% to a record CNY 804 billion, but domestic sales fell nearly 8%.
• BYD privately told analysts it expects 2026 exports to hit 1.5 million vehicles, 15% above its public target.
• Citigroup estimates BYD’s China car sales will be unprofitable in Q1 2026, putting the full weight on exports.
• In the first two months of 2026, domestic sales plunged 58% while exports surged over 50%.

BYD posted record revenue in 2025 but couldn’t hide the cracks underneath. Net profit fell 19% to CNY 32.6 billion (roughly $4.7 billion), snapping a four-year streak of earnings growth.

BYD Company Limited, BYDDY

Global revenue came in at CNY 804 billion, a 3.5% rise year over year. But the headline number masked a deeper problem: BYD’s home turf is losing ground fast.

Domestic vehicle deliveries fell almost 8% in 2025 to around 3.56 million units. The second half of the year was especially rough, as rival Chinese EV makers piled on the pressure and consumer demand softened.

The picture got worse heading into 2026. In January and February combined, BYD’s domestic sales plunged 58% to just 199,159 units. That followed the Chinese government pulling back some NEV subsidies at the end of last year.

Citigroup has flagged that BYD’s China auto business could slip into the red in Q1 2026. That would make exports the only profitable part of its core vehicle operation — a major shift for the world’s biggest EV maker.

Exports Carrying the Weight

Overseas sales have been the one reliable engine of growth. BYD sold over one million vehicles outside China in 2025, a 151% jump from the year before. And in the first two months of 2026, exports surged more than 50% to 201,082 units, even as the domestic side collapsed.

In a Monday analyst briefing following its earnings release, BYD management said privately that it expects exports to reach 1.5 million vehicles this year. That would be 15% above the 1.3 million target the company disclosed publicly in January.

The expanded forecast hasn’t been officially confirmed. A BYD spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

To hit those numbers, BYD has been building out manufacturing in Brazil, Hungary, and Southeast Asia — partly to get around trade barriers that would otherwise make its vehicles more expensive in those markets.

Battery Push Adds Another Angle

Beyond cars, BYD is leaning on its battery business as a long-term revenue stream.

The company has unveiled a new fast-charging system that can take a battery from 10% to 70% in five minutes, reaching near-full charge in around nine minutes. BYD plans to roll out ultra-fast charging stations outside China starting in 2027.

New-generation blade batteries remain a key product line the company is developing for both its own vehicles and third-party customers.

BYD also topped Tesla in total EV sales globally in 2025, a milestone that arrived at the same time as its profit decline — a sign of how competitive and margin-thin the EV market has become.

BYD’s total global sales reached 4.6 million vehicles in 2025, up 7.7% year over year.

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