Cardano breaks critical level as analyst warns of 11% drop

Cardano (ADA) price could be setting the stage for further selling on March 30, after it closed last week below a crucial buy wall around $0.245.​

The Cardano price weekly close below this level has triggered intraday follow-through, opening the path toward an estimated 11% decline to $0.22, as per analysis from Ali Martinez.

Last week, ADA price opened near $0.25 and finished at approximately $0.241 on Sunday, March 29. As a result of this drop, Cardano price confirmed a break of its multi-week support floor at $0.245, as highlighted by Martinez, who noted this level had held as a reliable bounce zone throughout the prior two months.​

Martinez’s bearish thesis will only be invalidated if ADA price reclaims $0.269 as support, the threshold identified by trading analyst Crypto Patel.

Why is Cardano facing a heightened bearish outlook?

Cardano price is facing compounding bearish pressure from both the on-chain and derivatives fronts. Over the past month, large Cardano holders, with wallet balances of 10-100 million ADA, have steadily increased their exposure, although the figure has remained unchanged since February, based on metrics from Santiment.

​The mid-tier holders have distributed their tokens over the past month, leaving about 5.66 billion ADA at the time of this publication. Meanwhile, retail investors – with account balances between 100,000 and 1,000,000 ADA – have been liquidating their positions, leaving approximately 5.75 billion ADA held by this group at the time of reporting.

The low demand for ADA from investors has coincided with its declining Open Interest (OI), the total amount of active contracts held by traders across all exchanges.​

​Since the beginning of 2025, Cardano’s OI has declined from a peak of approximately $846 million in early January to around $370 million at press time, according to CoinGlass data. Historically, sustained low spot demand combined with derivatives deleveraging, particularly during range-bound price action, has been a reliable precursor to further downside.