XRP Price Slides 62.5%, Data Signals Bear Market Phase

TLDR

• XRP price has fallen 62.5% from its $3.6 peak in July 2025, confirming a prolonged downtrend.
• XRP entered a full bear market after it closed below the key $1.80 support on Jan. 30, 2026.
• XRP price has continued to trade below $1.80 and recently stood at $1.35, reflecting sustained selling pressure.
• Chart Nerd stated that the breakdown below $1.80 confirmed a structural shift into a bearish phase.
• Historical data from the 3-month Gaussian Channel shows XRP has previously bottomed near the upper band.

XRP has entered a confirmed bear market after losing long-held support and dropping 62.5% from its $3.6 peak in July 2025. The token has traded under steady selling pressure for over six months, and the price structure now reflects sustained weakness. Market data and historical channel analysis now point to a potential bottom between $0.70 and $0.80.

XRP Price Breaks Key Support as Bearish Structure Forms

XRP price confirmed a bearish shift after closing below the $1.80 support on Jan. 30, 2026. The token had defended that level for 13 months, but sellers eventually forced a breakdown. As a result, the market structure changed and signaled a full bear market.

Since that breakdown, the XRP price has failed to reclaim $1.80 and continues to trade lower. At the time of analysis, the token stood at $1.35, which marks a 25% gap below the former support. This sustained weakness supports the broader bearish outlook.

Market analyst Chart Nerd highlighted $1.80 as the level that “kept XRP afloat” for over a year. He stated that the close below $1.80 confirmed the shift into a bear phase. He also explained that price cycles will continue even with institutional participation.

Some community members challenged parts of his thesis and cited growing adoption. One investor argued that XRP does not require a traditional bull run to rise. However, Chart Nerd responded that he never claimed adoption would not drive long-term value.

He stated, “I still see strong future price targets,” while acknowledging ongoing cycles. He added that bearish phases will still occur despite broader institutional involvement. Therefore, price structure remains the key technical guide.

Historical Channel Data Points to $0.70–$0.80 Range

Chart Nerd also reviewed XRP’s historical behavior around the 3-month Gaussian Channel. Data shows that XRP has historically bottomed near the upper band of that channel. He used past cycle data to frame possible downside targets.

After the December 2013 peak of $0.0613, XRP later fell to $0.003 in January 2017. That level aligned with the Gaussian Channel’s upper band at the time. The pattern repeated after the January 2018 peak of $3.31.

Following that 2018 high, XRP dropped to $0.1140 in March 2020. That low also matched support near the channel band. The same structure appeared after the April 2021 peak of $1.96.

XRP later declined to $0.28 in June 2022 during the Terra ecosystem collapse. That low again aligned with the channel’s upper boundary. Each bear cycle ended near that technical area.

Based on this recurring structure, Chart Nerd now projects a bottom between $0.70 and $0.80. He linked that range to the current Gaussian Channel positioning. He also stated that the bearish outlook may weaken if XRP breaks and holds above $1.65.

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