Tesla (TSLA) Stock Is Down 20% — April Could Change the Story

TLDR

• Tesla stock is down ~20% year to date, falling for six straight weeks as of Monday, March 30.
• Wall Street expects Q1 2026 deliveries of around 366,000 vehicles, up from 337,000 a year ago.
• CEO Elon Musk has promised Cybercab volume production will begin in April.
• Tesla expects supervised FSD approval in the Netherlands in April, a potential gateway to broader EU access.
• Q1 earnings per share are projected at 41 cents, up from 27 cents in Q1 2025.

Tesla (TSLA) stock was trading at $364.42 early Monday, up 0.7%, though down roughly 20% year to date.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Tesla’s stock rose 0.7% early Monday after a rough stretch that saw it fall for six consecutive weeks. The stock dropped 2.8% on Friday, leaving it down about 1.7% for that week and roughly 13% over the six-week slide.

The losing streak began — somewhat paradoxically — the week Tesla reported better-than-expected Q4 2025 earnings. The company posted earnings per share of 50 cents against a Wall Street estimate of 43 cents. But that figure was still well below the 73 cents earned in Q4 2024, and investors appear to be waiting for growth to return.

The next chance to see that growth comes Thursday, when Tesla is due to report Q1 2026 delivery numbers ahead of the Good Friday holiday.

Wall Street is projecting about 366,000 vehicle deliveries for the quarter, up from 337,000 a year ago. UBS threw a wrench into expectations in mid-March by projecting just 345,000 — below the analyst consensus of around 365,000. On prediction platform Polymarket, the implied odds put a 62% chance on deliveries coming in below 350,000.

Tesla reported 336,681 deliveries in Q1 2025. Beating that number convincingly would signal the sales slowdown in the first half of last year — attributed to the transition to a new Model Y — is now behind the company.

Cybercab Production Enters the Picture

Beyond deliveries, investors will be watching for movement on Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions. Musk has promised that Cybercab, Tesla’s dedicated robotaxi vehicle, will begin volume production in April.

The catch: Tesla has no regulatory approvals for Cybercab at present. Without them, ramping production risks tying up cash and inventory. Still, getting production started reduces execution risk and keeps investor focus on the robotaxi opportunity.

Tesla launched a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, last June and is expected to expand to additional cities in the first half of 2026. Las Vegas has been floated as a possible next stop.

FSD Eyes Europe

Tesla is also expecting a supervised full self-driving (FSD) approval in the Netherlands in April. The Netherlands Vehicle Authority confirmed the two parties are “currently completing the final steps of the assessment process.”

An approval in the Netherlands could open a path to broader EU access — either through a bloc-wide green light or country-by-country approvals. Tesla has been losing ground in Europe, and an FSD rollout there could lift the competitive position of its vehicles in that market.

On top of deliveries, Cybercab, and FSD Europe, Tesla is also expected to unveil the third generation of its Optimus humanoid robot in the coming weeks and may show off the long-delayed Roadster.

Analysts project Q1 2026 earnings per share of 41 cents, up from 27 cents in Q1 2025. Investors will likely have to wait for the earnings conference call — roughly three weeks after the delivery report — to get a fuller picture on robotaxi expansion and the Optimus timeline.

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