Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Rally Above $68K as Iran War Ceasefire Hopes Grow

TLDR

• Bitcoin briefly hit $68,589 as Iran signaled readiness to end the war
• Iran’s president said they’d end the war with security guarantees from the US
• Trump said he believes the Iran war will end soon and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen
• On-chain data shows BTC is still 21% above its realized price of ~$54,286
• Analysts say a daily close above $68,879 is needed to confirm a trend change

Bitcoin climbed above $68,000 on April 1, 2026, rising over 2% from an intraday low below $66,000. The move came after Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country is ready to end the war, provided the US meets certain demands and offers security guarantees.

US President Donald Trump had also signaled earlier in the day that he believes the war could end soon. Speaking to the New York Post, Trump said he doesn’t see a reason to remain in Iran much longer, adding that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen automatically once the war ends.

Traditional markets also responded. The Dow Jones gained over 1,125 points. The S&P 500 rose 2.91% and the Nasdaq gained 3.83%.

Iran’s conditions for ending the war include a halt to acts of aggression, war reparations, protection of its proxies, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the US will meet those demands remains unclear.

Traders Remain Cautious

Despite the price rise, crypto traders are skeptical about whether Bitcoin can hold these gains. Open interest in Bitcoin futures and spot demand have both remained flat since the February 6 sell-off below $60,000.

Analyst Ted Pillows posted on social media: “Price is going up. Open Interest is going down. Spot demand is weak. Any rally is due to shorts being closed. Soon OI will fully reset, and the next downtrend will begin.” His comments suggest the current move may not reflect genuine buying pressure.

Analysts say a daily close above the 50-day moving average and $68,879 would be needed to confirm a real trend shift. A break above that level could trigger a liquidation-driven rally toward $82,000.

Stablecoin inflows to exchanges are near a two-year low. Short-term traders are holding positions below their cost basis of $85,800.

On-Chain Data Not Signaling a Bottom

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s realized price sits at $54,286. With spot near $68,774, BTC is trading about 21% above its average cost basis.

In past cycle bottoms, such as 2022, Bitcoin fell below its realized price before recovering. That hasn’t happened here. For spot to reach realized price, Bitcoin would need to fall to around $54,000.

ETF inflows topped $1 billion in March, showing some institutional interest remains. The Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative, pointing to weakening demand from US-based buyers.

Bitcoin held above $68,000 at the time of writing.

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