Trump polling 'underwater' for 'molten core' of his supporter base: analysis

Donald Trump's polling numbers look worse the longer the Iran war goes on, with even his core voters abandoning him, a political analyst has observed.

As the president's unpopular war in Iran carries on, his usual supporter base appears ready to abandon him. Leah Greenberg and The New Republic's Greg Sargent suggested even the most dedicated of MAGA voters had abandoned Trump because of the unpopular war in the Middle East.

Sargent said, "I should say that the Fox poll had his approval among independents at 25 percent and his disapproval among independents at 75 percent, which is extraordinary."

"But critically, only 28 percent of independents support the war in Iran. On top of that, Trump is underwater with non-college whites and even non-college white men. You don’t get closer to the molten core of the MAGA base than that. Critically, those demographics in the Fox poll also oppose the war. He’s losing his base over the war, isn’t he?"

Greenberg went on to suggest this had been a growing concern under Joe Biden's administration, and it appears to be affecting Trump's team more so than the Democratic Party in 2024.

"Yeah, that’s absolutely the case," she said. "There was a door that was left open by the disastrous Biden administration policies on Gaza for Trump to portray himself as the anti-war candidate in 2024."

"I think many people, including folks like the Uncommitted movement, recognized at the time and tried to avert a situation where Trump was able to do that.

"Also there was absolutely a base of folks who thought they were voting for the anti-war candidate in 2024 when they voted for Donald Trump. You are seeing a fracturing of that set of folks. They may not necessarily be the highest information voters, but a war is certainly capable of breaking through to them."

"But voters are actually perfectly capable of making a judgment based on what they understand to be your priorities based on what they see in the headline."

"So if all you see in the headlines about Donald Trump is that he is going to war, he is bombing other places, he is attacking and invading American states, he’s launching the newest version of his ballroom plans—you’re perfectly capable of figuring out the corollary, which is that he is not very focused on your economic wellbeing."