Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Is Down Over 90% From Its Peak, Is This the Point of No Return?

Cardano is back on the radar, and not because of strength. It’s deep in a prolonged correction, down more than 90% from its all-time high, and now trading in a zone that could define what happens next.

There’s also a new narrative entering the conversation. Crypto analyst Crypto Patel recently pointed out that ADA has now been classified as a commodity, framing the current price levels as a potential opportunity rather than a warning sign.

That perspective sounds bold, especially with the chart still leaning bearish. But when you zoom out, things start to get more interesting.

The macro picture: A familiar cycle setup

Looking at the chart shared by Patel, the ADA price has already gone through a full boom-and-bust cycle. The 2021 run was massive, with gains over 3,000% before topping out near $3.10. Since then, it’s been a steady grind lower. Lower highs, lower lows, and a clear resistance trendline pressing down from above. 

Now, price has dropped into what’s being called a macro demand zone, roughly between $0.13 and $0.18. This is the area where long-term buyers usually start paying attention.

The interesting part is that the ADA price is already testing the upper edge of that zone after experiencing a drawdown of more than 90%. That puts it in a position where it either stabilizes and builds a base, or continues sliding deeper. This is the kind of level where cycles tend to reset, but only if buyers actually step in.

The breakdown that changed everything for Cardano

One key moment in this structure was the breakdown that happened after ADA lost a major support level. That move accelerated the decline and pushed price straight into this macro demand zone.

Since then, there hasn’t been a convincing recovery. The ADA price hasn’t reclaimed any major structure, and every bounce has been capped by resistance.

There is a projected path on the macro chart that shows a long base forming through 2026, followed by a strong move higher into 2027. It’s an optimistic scenario, but it depends entirely on whether this zone holds.

If it does, the upside targets stretch far beyond current levels. If it doesn’t, the chart opens up to much lower prices.

ADA price analysis: The daily and 4-hour chart

Zooming in, the daily chart doesn’t offer much comfort yet. The ADA price is trading around $0.24, and it’s still below key moving averages. The 100-day SMA is sitting well above price and continues to slope downward. That alone tells you the trend hasn’t flipped.

Daily ADA price chart analysis.

There’s also been a clear sequence of breakdowns through key levels. Each one confirmed that sellers were still in control, and price has continued to move lower as a result.

Support in the $0.18–$0.23 range has helped slow things down a bit, but it hasn’t triggered a strong bounce. RSI is also sitting in a weak zone, which means there’s still room for another move lower if pressure continues.

The descending trendline from previous highs is still intact, and until price breaks above it, any recovery attempt remains questionable.

4-hour ADA price chart analysis.

We also took a look at the 4-hour chart, and the story stays the same. The ADA price is still moving inside a descending channel, with lower highs forming consistently. There was a brief attempt to move higher recently, but it didn’t hold. Sellers stepped back in, and the structure broke downward again.

Support around $0.23 is the key level to watch right now. If buyers can defend it, there’s room for a short-term bounce. If not, the price could slide back toward the macro demand zone pretty quickly.

The on-chain data confirms the pressure

Looking at the on-chain data from Glassnode, the picture lines up with what the charts are showing. The ADA price has been under steady pressure, and market cap has dropped alongside it. Billions in value have been wiped out over a short period, and the recovery so far has been limited.

The drawdown from the all-time high is still extreme, sitting above 90%. That’s a reminder of how far the token still has to go before any meaningful recovery takes shape. Even small moves lower at this stage push that drawdown deeper, which shows how little buying pressure has come in so far.

What happens next for the ADA price

Right now, the ADA price is in a waiting phase. The macro setup is interesting, especially with the demand zone coming into play, but the lower timeframes haven’t confirmed anything yet.

There’s still no clear reversal, no strong momentum, and no break of resistance that would signal a trend change. At the same time, this is exactly where early accumulation tends to happen, quietly, before sentiment turns.

So for now, it’s less about jumping in and more about watching how price behaves around these key levels. If the zone holds, this could end up being one of those moments people look back on later. If it doesn’t, the downside risk stays very real.

Either way, the ADA price is getting close to a decision point that could define its next major move. CoinCodex’s 1-month ADA price prediction places the token at $0.3477, indicating a potential move from current levels near $0.24 if momentum returns and key resistance levels are reclaimed.