American Conference Holds The Keys To Non-Power CFP Spot

With four weeks remaining in the regular season, there are six teams in the American that have one loss in league play. Five of them have either been ranked or have received votes in the polls. The one that has not, East Carolina, might be an upset of Memphis (next week) away from playing for the conference title and potentially a seat at the College Football Playoff table. That pretty much summarizes the muddled picture in the American and how little meat there is on the bone elsewhere among non-power conference teams.

James Madison and San Diego State, members of the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively, are having outstanding seasons. However, the Dukes and Aztecs, who are the second stingiest to score against (10.0 points) in the country, have combined to defeat three teams with winning records. It is their lack of needle-moving wins that places the spotlight on the American, which boasts Memphis as the team the CFP committee ranks the highest, though outside the top 25.

With a number of possibilities as far as potential championship game participants, the American promises to provide ample storylines as the days whittle away toward the December 5 title matchup. Indeed, it has been quite a ride to this point. Look no further than Memphis (8-1/4-1) to see how the pendulum has drastically swung from one week to the next.

Even after the Tigers’ mid-October setback against a UAB team that had lost all three of its conference games to that point and fired coach Trent Dilfer a few days earlier, and losing the services of quarterback Brendon Lewis for most of the second half against the Blazers, they found themselves in the driver’s seat a week later following a comeback victory against visiting USF. They then rolled past Rice last week. Though the margin for error is slim, remaining dates with three of the other one-loss teams – vs. Tulane on Friday evening, at ECU and vs. Navy – have Ryan Silverfield’s squad in control of its conference and playoff destiny.

That is how it looked for USF (6-2/3-1) prior to losing at Memphis. The Bulls, who remain in good shape but best not slip up, had an impressive first two weeks with a convincing 34-7 win against visiting Boise State and defeated Florida in the Swamp as time expired. They went into the Memphis clash having lost only at Miami and having rolled past their first four conference foes.

USF’s date with the Midshipmen (7-1/5-1) in Annapolis next week appeared as though it might be a clash between unbeatens. Instead, it might be an elimination game given the Bulls’ loss to Memphis and Navy’s loss at North Texas last week. As noted above, the Middies, who at Notre Dame this week, still have Memphis on the schedule as well. Their annual clash with service academy rival, Army, played in Baltimore on December 13, does not count in the conference standings and is played one week after the final CFP ranking is released.

Cleary, Memphis and USF, which has never appeared in conference championship game, are in the best shape with Navy still having to play both.

North Texas | Tulane | ECU

The Mean Green (8-1/4-1) were tied with USF at the half before the latter exploded for 42 second-half points in a 63-36 win in Denton on October 10. While North Texas would lose that tiebreaker, there is a very manageable final three games with a trip to UAB – no need to remind Eric Morris’ squad what happened to Memphis – at Rice and against visiting Temple. Though the Mean Green defeated Navy, they miss Memphis on the schedule. Hence, there is no shot of taking down the current big boy among the G5.

Tulane, like Navy, stumbled for the first time in conference play last week. UTSA quarterback Owen McCown sliced through the Green Wave (6-2/3-1) in leading the Roadrunners, who are in Tampa to face USF on Thursday night. There are still opportunities for the Green Wave, such as the aforementioned matchup at Memphis.

East Carolina? The Pirates (5-3/3-1) have Memphis at home next week and three games against teams that currently do not possess a winning record in conference play: vs. Charlotte, at UTSA and at FAU. They could run the table and win the American while possibly defeating two ranked teams in the process: the Tigers and whoever they might meet for the conference title. Their three losses, by the way, are at NC State, against visiting and current No. 7 BYU, and at Tulane.

James Madison | San Diego State

If the American continues to chew up itself, the Dukes (7-1/5-0 SBC) and Aztecs (7-1/4-0 MWC) will be looked at more closely. (Imagine JMU, a program in its fifth season in the FBS going to the playoff. It could happen.) The Dukes, who have defeated only one team with a winning record, appear on their way to a conference championship date with Southern Miss, Arkansas State or Troy. Win out, and the fun might just begin.

Both of the Aztecs’ victories against teams over .500 were shutouts of Cal and Fresno State. The potential tricky part for Sean Lewis’ team is playing and defeating Boise State twice in four weeks. While the Broncos lost the services quarterback Maddux Madsen for an unknown period of time, it would still be a chore for San Diego State to defeat Boise State next week and possibly have to do so again for the MWC title. As for the Broncos, with three losses, including to USF and to unranked Fresno State last week when Madsen was injured, they are not in the mix after making the playoff last year.