Avalanche price at risk ahead of a $35m AVAX unlock

Avalanche price has moved into a bear market this month after plunging by 45% from its highest point in September, and this retreat may continue ahead of a big token unlock. 

Avalanche (AVAX) token dropped to the psychological point at $20, down sharply from the September high of $36. It is hovering at its lowest point on Oct. 11.

The primary catalyst for the AVAX price this week will be an upcoming lock on Oct. 24. It will unlock 1.67 million tokens currently valued at almost $35 million.

Avalanche has now unlocked about 60% of all its tokens, and the process will go on until at least 2030. Token unlocks are often seen as being bearish, as they increase the number of those in circulation. 

AVAX price has also retreated as data shows that the ecosystem growth has pulled back. According to Nansen, the number of transactions in the network dropped by 18% in the last seven days to 11.1 million. 

This crash has affected the money the network is making in fees. Its fees dropped by 61% in the last seven days to $345,000. On the positive side, Avalanche’s monthly fees have jumped to 120% to $2.14 million. 

Avalanche’s fees have an impact on the token because the network burns all of them. As a result, the latest data shows that the burn rate has jumped, with the cumulative total crossing the critical milestone at 4.87 million. 

Avalanche price has other potential catalysts that may help to offset the impact of the upcoming unlock. For example, it has become a major player in the stablecoin industry, where the circulating supply has jumped to $1.7 billion.

Avalanche has emerged as one of the leading blockchains for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, now hosting more than $740 million in tokenized assets and ranking among the top five RWA networks.

Major financial institutions such as SkyBridge Capital and Grove Finance have contributed to that growth by tokenizing hedge funds and credit products worth over $550 million on the platform.

Recently, Wyoming launched FRNT, the first U.S. state-issued stablecoin, on Avalanche—marking a regulatory and operational milestone for government payments conducted on-chain.

Avalanche price technical analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the AVAX price has come under pressure in the past few weeks. It crashed from a high of $36 on September 23 to a low of $17 as the crypto market crashed.

Its lowest point this month was notable as it coincided with the lowest swings in April, June, and October. It has also moved below the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages. 

Further declines may put it at risk of forming the death cross pattern, which often leads to more downside. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the coin dropped to the October low of $17. A break below that level will point to more downside, potentially to $15.