PA Daily | Arthur Hayes predicts a sharp market correction in mid-March; Binance will launch COOKIE, ALCH and SWARMS perpetual contracts

Today's news tips:

Arthur Hayes: Crypto market may peak in mid-March, then see severe correction

Prediction Markets Show Crypto-Friendly Pierre Poilievre Poised to Become Canada’s Next Prime Minister

"SWARMS & ZEILGO No. 1 User" spent 203.92 SOLs to buy PRISM last night

Santiment: Bitcoin may be gradually deviating from the normal fluctuation trajectory of global stock markets, which is a bullish signal

Ripple CEO: The company's original $11 billion valuation is "seriously outdated"

As many as 20 "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" bills will be introduced at the state level in the United States

Binance will launch COOKIE, ALCH and SWARMS perpetual contracts, supporting up to 75x leverage

Backpack Exchange acquires FTX EU for $32.7 million, plans to promote regulated crypto derivatives in Europe

Regulatory/Macro

U.S.-listed Bitcoin mining companies have raised more than $3.7 billion to buy Bitcoin since November last year

As competition for resources intensifies, U.S. bitcoin miners are accumulating cryptocurrency funds to help them withstand tightening profit margins, according to the Money Times. Companies including Mara Holdings, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark have taken advantage of the surge in bitcoin prices, raising more than $3.7 billion from investors since November last year, and then used the funds to buy bitcoin. They usually raise funds through zero-interest (or near-zero-interest) convertible bonds. "It's not as simple as everyone is happy after the bitcoin price rises," said Russell Cann, chief development officer of Core Scientific. "There are still complex challenges in profitability and grid access." The miners' plans also include expanding the capabilities of artificial intelligence, marking a sharp reversal in the industry's prospects. The industry has struggled in the past eight months after the bitcoin mining reward was halved. Cann also said: "The demand for artificial intelligence in the United States will greatly affect the scale of bitcoin mining." He predicted that most of Bitcoin's computing power in the next few years will come from outside the United States.

Canadian Prime Ministerial Candidate Pierre Poilievre Has Promised to Make the Country the ‘Crypto Capital’

According to Cointelegraph, Pierre Poilievre, a popular candidate for Canadian Prime Minister, has promised to make Canada the "capital of cryptocurrency." According to a video that circulated on the Internet recently, during a campaign event in March 2022, Poilievre used Bitcoin to buy a shawarma and promised a plan to "make Canada the world's blockchain and cryptocurrency capital." In his speech at the event, he criticized the central bank system and Canada's cryptocurrency regulation. He also said that Bitcoin can help Canadians "get rid of" inflation-after the cryptocurrency market fell sharply in 2023, he was attacked by the Liberal Party's attack ads at the end of the same year. Poilievre has also made other pro-cryptocurrency remarks, including a post published in 2022, promising that "buyers and sellers have the right to freely choose Bitcoin and other technologies." He also called the Bank of Canada "lack of knowledge in finance" and vowed to prevent the bank from issuing "dangerous central bank digital currencies." Recently, in April 2024, he posted on social media to support a bill that would ban central bank digital currencies and protect the use of cash. According to a CBC News poll, Poilievre has led the Conservative Party since 2022. As of January 6, the party is 24 percentage points ahead of the ruling Liberal Party and has a 98% chance of winning a majority. Earlier today, the prediction market showed that pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre is expected to become the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Prediction Markets Show Crypto-Friendly Pierre Poilievre Poised to Become Canada’s Next Prime Minister

According to The Block, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday, prediction market users predicted that the probability of Pierre Poilievre, a politician who supports cryptocurrency and leader of the Canadian Conservative Party, being elected as Canada's next prime minister is 89%. In 2022, Poilievre revealed that he holds personal holdings in Purpose Bitcoin, a Canada-based cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded fund, and also advocates that individuals can choose to invest in Bitcoin.

As many as 20 "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" bills will be introduced at the state level in the United States

Dennis Porter, co-founder of Satoshi Action Fund, said on X platform that as many as 20 "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" bills will be proposed at the state level in the United States - there may be multiple bills in the same state - and legislators are competing fiercely to be the first in history. The vast majority of these bills will be based on the SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) model proposed by Satoshi Action Fund. Previously, Porter said that the 14th state in the United States is now ready to introduce "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" legislation.

Calamos to Launch Bitcoin ETF with Downside Protection on January 22

According to Crypto.news, Calamos Investments is launching a Bitcoin ETF with 100% downside protection. According to information released by the company, this ETF, called CBOJ, will debut on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on January 22, aiming to address Bitcoin's volatility while providing growth potential. It is reported that U.S. Treasuries are combined with options linked to the CBOE Bitcoin US ETF Index to achieve this protection. This structure provides a regulated and transparent way to gain exposure to Bitcoin while minimizing risk.

Anti-crypto Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr Resigns

According to Beincrypto, Michael Barr, Vice Chairman of Supervision of the Federal Reserve, announced today that he will resign from the position. Barr will no longer serve as the third-in-command of the Federal Reserve Board, but he intends to remain at the Federal Reserve until further notice. It is generally believed in the industry that Barr is one of the key factors in the failure of American banks to get involved in cryptocurrencies and related services. According to a recent press release, his resignation will take effect on February 28 or after his successor is confirmed. However, even if a new vice chairman of supervision is found soon, Barr will continue to remain on the Federal Reserve Board. His term was supposed to end naturally in 2032. However, this may be an important opportunity for cryptocurrency regulation. He claimed: "It is an honor to serve as the vice chairman of supervision of the Federal Reserve Board. Controversy over this position may distract us from our mission. In the current environment, I think it will be more effective to serve the American people from the position of director." In 2023, Barr led the crackdown on stablecoins and expressed his desire to "keep cryptocurrencies out of the banking industry."

Gemini agrees to pay $5 million to settle CFTC lawsuit

Gemini Trust Co., the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, has agreed to pay $5 million to settle a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to Bloomberg. The lawsuit claimed that Gemini misled the derivatives regulator when it tried to launch the first U.S.-regulated bitcoin futures contract. The settlement was disclosed in documents signed by both parties on Monday, avoiding a trial that was originally scheduled to begin on January 21, the day after Trump was inaugurated for the second time as U.S. President. Gemini neither admitted nor denied liability in the case. In 2022, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against Gemini in Manhattan federal court, alleging that the exchange "made false and misleading statements about how to prevent Bitcoin price manipulation." On Monday, U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein approved the settlement. Last November, Judge Hellerstein rejected Gemini's request, ruling that a jury must determine whether 32 statements made by Gemini executives to regulators were misleading. Gemini still faces a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that accuses the exchange and cryptocurrency lending company Genesis Global Capital of illegally raising billions of dollars in crypto assets from investors through the so-called Gemini Earn program. In February of this year, Gemini agreed to return at least $1.1 billion to customers as part of another settlement agreement with New York regulators.

AI

Swarms breaks through $0.6, up 76.1% in 24 hours

According to GMGN.AI data, Solana ecosystem AI project Swarms broke through $0.6, up 76.1% in 24 hours, setting a new historical high. The current price is $0.6008457, with a market value exceeding $600 million.

MAX breaks through $0.11, up 125.3% in 24 hours

According to GMGN.AI data, Solana ecosystem AI Meme project MAX broke through $0.11, setting a new historical high, up 125.3% in 24 hours, and is currently quoted at $0.1111, rising to a high of $0.116. Its market value has exceeded $100 million.

NVIDIA announces NVIDIA Cosmos, the world’s most powerful model

According to Cailianshe, NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the launch of NVIDIA Cosmos, a basic model designed to understand the real world. The Cosmos model can accept prompts from text, images, or videos to generate virtual world states as video outputs for the unique needs of autonomous driving and robotics applications. Developers can use Cosmos to generate AI feedback for reinforcement learning, thereby improving policy models and testing performance in different scenarios. Earlier today, NVIDIA launched a consumer-grade GPU based on the Blackwell architecture, opening up a new world of AI computer graphics.

Nvidia launches consumer GPU based on Blackwell architecture, opening up a new world of AI computer graphics

According to financial reports, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) today released the most advanced consumer GPU for gamers, creators and developers - GeForce RTX(TM) 50 series desktop and laptop GPUs. Supported by NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture, fifth-generation Tensor Cores and fourth-generation RT Cores, the GeForce RTX 50 series has made breakthroughs in AI-driven rendering, including neural shaders, digital human technology, geometry and lighting. The GeForce RTX 5090 GPU is the fastest GeForce RTX GPU to date, with 92 billion transistors and more than 3,352 trillion AI operations per second (TOPS) of computing power. Blackwell architecture innovations and DLSS 4 mean that the performance of the GeForce RTX 5090 GPU is 2 times higher than that of the GeForce RTX 4090 GPU.

Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun are forming a joint venture, ReadyGamer

According to official news, Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun are forming a joint venture called "ReadyGamer" that focuses on the integration of AI and games.

Financing/Acquisition

Backpack Exchange acquires FTX EU for $32.7 million, plans to promote regulated crypto derivatives in Europe

FTX EU, the bankrupt European branch of FTX, has been acquired by Backpack Exchange for $32.7 million. FTX EU previously held a MiFID II license issued by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). Armani Ferrante, CEO of Backpack Exchange, said that the company plans to become the only regulated perpetual contract provider in Europe and has submitted a MiCA notification, which is expected to go online in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, Backpack plans to launch a full range of crypto derivatives services, giving priority to regulated perpetual futures products, and promises to give priority to returning FTX EU customer funds. At present, many exchanges including Coinbase and Bitstamp have obtained MiFID II licenses. It is reported that the founding team of Backpack has previously participated in the construction of the Solana ecosystem and successfully launched wallet and NFT businesses, completing US$17 million in financing last year.

SUI Ecosystem Project Wave Completes Seed Round Financing, KuCoin Labs Leads Investment

SUI ecological project Wave officially announced that its seed round of financing completed in November 2024 was led by KuCoin Labs, and other investors included SUI Foundation, Web3Port Foundation and Comma3 Ventures. The amount of financing was not disclosed. The Wave team said that the project will usher in a new stage and more innovations are coming. Wave currently has more than 4 million on-chain users and more than 600,000 monthly active users. Its products include Wave Trading, a Telegram-based trading tool, Wave Pad, an incubation platform that supports high-quality early projects in the SUI ecosystem, and DeFi and GameFi related products such as Wave Staking and Lucky Wheel, providing users with a one-stop experience in trading, airdrops, investments and games.

Project News

Binance will launch COOKIE, ALCH and SWARMS perpetual contracts, supporting up to 75x leverage

Binance announced that it will launch three new USDT perpetual contracts, including COOKIE/USDT, ALCH/USDT and SWARMS/USDT, with a maximum leverage of 75x. The launch time is 19:30, 19:45 and 20:15 on January 7, Beijing time.

Upbit to Support Sonic SVM (SONIC) Trading in KRW, BTC and USDT

Upbit announced that it will add KRW, BTC and USDT trading support for the digital asset SONIC (Sonic SVM). SONIC is based on the Solana network, and the deposit support is scheduled to start at 20:00 local time on January 7. The trading support time will be announced separately.

Binance Alpha adds HAT, AIXCB, and NEUR

The official page shows that Binance Alpha has announced a new list of projects, including HAT, AIXCB and NEUR. The following is a brief introduction to the projects: HAT: Top Hat is an artificial intelligence proxy issuance platform on the Solana chain; AIXCB: aixCB Capital is a community-supported, artificial intelligence-driven venture capital project; NEUR: Neur is an open source full-stack application that integrates the LLM model and blockchain technology.

Reddit's head of collectible avatar NFT product resigns, sparking concerns among platform users

According to Cointelegraph, Reddit Collectible Avatars (RCA) NFT holders have expressed concerns about the future prospects of the product after learning that the project leader has confirmed his departure from the social media company. Bianca Wyler, head of the Reddit Collectible Avatar project, said on LinkedIn: "My journey at Reddit has come to an end. Although I am sad about this transition, I am still very proud of what I have achieved during that time." Some Reddit users have noticed that Wyler's recent comments on the Reddit account have been deleted, which has aroused their further concerns that her seemingly sudden departure may be a harbinger of the social platform's next adjustment to the avatar project. In an interview, Wyler revealed that her departure reflects the natural shift of social media companies in exploring new technologies and adjusting priorities. Although she is uncertain about the direction of the RCA project, she believes that Reddit will continue to benefit the community. Launched in July 2022, RCA is promoted as a limited edition artwork created in collaboration with independent creators. Data from Dune Analytics shows that the total number of holders of these NFTs has now exceeded 33.5 million. Since peaking in late 2022, sales of these NFTs have failed to keep up, with monthly secondary market trading volume hovering around $100,000 in the last three months of 2024, and trading volume has also declined since its peak in 2022.

Solana Mobile’s second phone, Solana Seeker, is expected to be launched in mid-2025

According to Blockworks, Solana Seeker, the second mobile phone developed by Solana Mobile, is expected to be launched in mid-2025. As of October last year, Solana Mobile General Manager Emmett Hollyer said that Seeker is priced at US$500 and has received 145,000 reservations.

Solana Foundation proposes adding a new hash type to improve account state efficiency and security

The Solana Foundation initiated the SIMD-0215 proposal, which aims to expand Solana's infrastructure to billions of user accounts. This proposal adds a new hash, the "Accounts Lattice Hash". According to reports, the "Accounts Lattice Hash" uses homomorphic hashing to maintain the hash of the entire account state, which is both fast and secure, enabling each block to contain the hash of all accounts, not just the accounts changed in the block, and delete the Epoch Accounts Hash.

Babylon will launch the second phase of the test network on January 8

According to official news, Bitcoin staking protocol Babylon announced that it will launch the second phase of the testnet on January 8. The second phase of block production will start at 9 am UTC (17:00 Beijing time on January 8), and the equity staking network application will be launched at 10 am UTC (18:00 Beijing time on January 8). This phase will focus on testing the migration registration of the first phase of Signet Bitcoin staking, as well as the interaction with various protocol participants, including Bitcoin pledgers, final confirmation providers, validators, Liquid staking protocols, etc. The testnet supports permissionless smart contract deployment, with a single pledge limit of 0.0005-350 Signet BTC and an unbinding period of about 16-17 hours (100 Bitcoin blocks). The project is open for testing worldwide, but users in the United States, Canada, Australia and mainland China are restricted from participating.

Viewpoint

Santiment: Bitcoin may be gradually deviating from the normal fluctuation trajectory of global stock markets, which is a bullish signal

Santiment, a crypto market research firm, posted on the X platform that the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks has remained high since Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States two months ago. But today, we observed that Bitcoin has shown a surge relative to the S&P 500 (based on its regular fluctuation range). For most of the past three years, the image of cryptocurrencies in the minds of most community members has gradually changed to "highly leveraged technology stocks." However, signs in early 2025 show that Bitcoin may be gradually deviating from the regular fluctuation trajectory of global stock markets. From historical experience, the cryptocurrency market tends to flourish and usher in the most significant bull market in periods with little or no correlation with the stock market. If Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can achieve strong growth in January without relying on the S&P 500, it will be a strong signal that the possibility of setting new historical highs has increased significantly.

Ripple CEO: The company's original $11 billion valuation is "seriously outdated"

According to Coingape, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the company's original $11 billion valuation is "seriously outdated" as XRP prices rise and demand for Ripple's blockchain solutions grows. In the interview, he mentioned that Ripple's XRP holdings are worth more than $100 billion, which has become the key to reshaping the company's valuation prospects. Ripple was last valued at $11 billion in early 2024, when the company repurchased $300 million worth of shares. Garlinghouse pointed out that compared with cryptocurrency-related companies such as MicroStrategy, Ripple trades in the private market at a price far below its net asset value. He said: "We hold XRP worth more than $100 billion, while MicroStrategy trades at three times its net asset value, and Ripple has been underestimated." In the interview, Garlinghouse reiterated that the company focuses on the B2B sector, including banks, payment providers and enterprises, where Ripple provides solutions such as custody and cross-border payments. Garlinghouse also emphasized that its stablecoin RLUSD will utilize XRP rather than replace it, thereby improving its liquidity and opening up more possibilities for leveraging Ripple's decentralized exchange (DEX) and automated market maker (AMM) features. Ripple's growth has also benefited from changes in the legal environment. Garlinghouse believes that the departure of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and the regulatory clarity of the new government have brought a "turning point" to Ripple. He said: "The wind has changed, and although 95% of our customers are outside the United States, I expect interest from the United States to return in the coming months."

Arthur Hayes: Crypto market may peak in mid-March, then see severe correction

In his latest blog post, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, explains why he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-March and then experience a severe correction. The article states that Bitcoin bottomed out in the third quarter of 2022 when the Fed's reverse repo tool peaked; Yellen adjusted her bond strategy and withdrew more than $2 trillion from RRP, injecting liquidity into the market and driving cryptocurrencies and stocks up sharply. In the first quarter of 2025, the market is concerned about whether US dollar liquidity can offset the slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. First, the article discusses the Federal Reserve, which is a secondary consideration in this analysis. Then, the article discusses how the US Treasury will deal with the debt ceiling. Focus on how the Treasury will deal with the debt ceiling. If politicians hesitate, the Treasury may inject liquidity from the general account (TGA) to create a positive atmosphere for cryptocurrencies. The Fed's quantitative tightening policy continues, but the scale of RRP has been nearly zeroed, and the RRP interest rate has been lowered to reduce its attractiveness. The move is aimed at boosting demand for US bonds and paving the way for policies such as stopping QT. Yellen revealed that the Treasury expects to take "extraordinary measures" to raise funds in mid-January. When politicians agree to raise the debt ceiling will test Trump's support. The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance is expected to run out in May-June, and the market may react in advance. As of the end of the first quarter, the total dollar liquidity of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is expected to be $612 billion. When the default and shutdown crisis approaches, an agreement will be reached to raise the debt ceiling, and the Treasury will resume borrowing and replenish TGA, resulting in a decrease in liquidity. After the tax payment deadline on April 15, the government's financial situation will improve and liquidity will also decrease. If the TGA balance dominates the price of cryptocurrencies, the market may reach a high at the end of the first quarter and then fall back. Yellen lowered the interest rate to issue short-term Treasury bills, which led to the failure of Powell's strategy of tightening financial conditions to fight inflation. Although the Trump team may perform poorly on cryptocurrencies and corporate legislation, the positive dollar liquidity environment may offset this effect. Hayes said: "Investors are advised to sell in the late first quarter and wait for liquidity conditions to improve in the third quarter. As the chief investment officer of Maelstrom, it is recommended that risk takers switch to aggressive mode and get involved in the decentralized science (DeSci) altcoin field. Maelstrom has purchased BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, and NEURON. If things go well, I will reduce my baseline position in March."

Important data

NFT project Mad Lads rose 24% in a short period of time, and the floor price is now 84.2SOL

Perhaps influenced by the "Backpack Exchange's acquisition of FTX EU for $32.7 million", the NFT project Mad Lads rose by 24% in a short period of time, and the floor price is now reported at 84.2SOL. Earlier today, it was reported that Backpack Exchange acquired FTX EU for $32.7 million and planned to promote regulated crypto derivatives in Europe.

Smart money with a winning rate of 89.07% in the past 30 days has made a profit of about 37 million US dollars through trading ai16z and Fartcoin

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader has a winning rate of 89.07% in the past 30 days. The trader discovered $ai16z early on October 25, 2024, and purchased 9.16 million $ai16z with only 18 $SOL (about $3,000). Currently, 1.32 million have been sold, with a profit of $1.71 million, and 7.85 million (worth $17.26 million) are still held, with a total profit of $19 million, and a return rate of 6,400 times. In addition, he invested $12,200 to purchase 17.31 million $Fartcoin when its market value was only $83,000. He has sold 6.71 million and made a profit of $5.41 million. He now holds 10.6 million (worth $12.83 million), with a total profit of more than $18 million and a return rate of 1,490 times. In the past 24 hours, the trader also bought a variety of low-cap tokens, including $eef, $DEAL, $GG, $SXBT, $FARTOLOGY, and $TBOO. His latest large position is $OPAIUM, with 400 $SOL (about $86,000).

The total net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday was US$987 million, and FBTC had a net inflow of US$370 million in a single day

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (January 6, Eastern Time), the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was US$987 million. Yesterday, Grayscale ETF GBTC had a single-day net inflow of US$73.7931 million, and the current historical net outflow of GBTC is US$21.446 billion. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF BTC had a single-day net inflow of US$75.2304 million, and the current historical total net inflow of Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust BTC is US$924 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net inflow yesterday was Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a single-day net inflow of US$370 million, and the current historical total net inflow of FBTC is US$12.485 billion. The second is BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of US$209 million, and the current historical total net inflow of IBIT is US$37.378 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF was US$116.667 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of the total market value of Bitcoin) was 5.77%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached US$36.896 billion.

"SWARMS & ZEILGO No. 1 User" spent 203.92 SOLs to buy PRISM last night

According to the monitoring of on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, "SWARMS & ZEILGO No. 1 User" spent 203.92 SOLs to buy the new token PRISM last night, which has now become the fifth-ranked asset in his holdings; his total assets are as high as 33.43 million US dollars, of which SWARMS has a floating profit of 27.07 million US dollars. His PRISM cost is 0.007413 US dollars (current price is 0.008265 US dollars), and has been transferred from the small transaction address EHB8Q...FjNay to the No. 1 address. As of now, his holdings are as follows: SWARMS: TOP1 holding address, floating profit of 27.07 million US dollars; MCS: TOP3 holding address; ZAILGO: TOP1 holding address, holding ranking has risen by one; SPORES: TOP2 holding address; PRISM: TOP11 holding address.

Two whales/institutions transferred a total of 16.38 million ENA to CEX in the past 14 hours, equivalent to about 19.4 million US dollars

According to Spot On Chain, two whales/institutions transferred 16.38 million ENA (US$19.4 million) to CEX in the past 14 hours. The multi-signature address starting with 0xc69 deposited 10 million ENA (US$11.9 million) to Bybit 13 hours ago and still holds 124.7 million ENA (about US$144 million), most of which are pledged. This multi-signature address often sells ENA before the price drops, and seems to share the same Bybit deposit address with Arthur Hayes (founder of BitMEX). 6 hours ago, Galaxy Digital deposited 6.38 million ENA (US$7.49 million) to Binance at a price of US$1.173. They withdrew 10.9 million ENA from Binance at a price of US$0.925 on December 5, 2024, and now still hold 4.45 million ENA (US$5.17 million), with an estimated total profit of US$2.64 million (+26%).