How to Trade Up/Down Crypto Events on Prediction Markets
Key Takeaways
- Up/Down Crypto Events are short-duration prediction events based on the price movements of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether. New events open and settle automatically every 5 or 15 minutes.
- Users simply predict whether the price will rise or fall during the event period. Correct predictions receive the corresponding payout, making it simple for new users to get started.
- Settlement prices are calculated using a time-weighted average based on a compliant third-party real-time index. This transparent approach helps reduce the impact of sudden price spikes or drops near settlement.
1. What Are Up/Down Crypto Events?
Up/Down Crypto Events are high-frequency, rolling prediction events available on MEXC Prediction Markets. Each event uses the compliant index price of a major cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, as the settlement reference and runs for a fixed 5-minute or 15-minute period. Events open and settle automatically. Users simply predict whether the price will rise or fall during the selected period, and correct predictions receive the corresponding payout.
Key terms:
Term | Explanation |
Baseline Price | The reference price recorded when an event opens and used as the benchmark for determining whether the price moves up or down. It is calculated using a time-weighted average price (TWAP). |
Settlement Price | The final price used to determine the event outcome at expiry. During the final minute before expiry, the system collects either 60 or 20 real-time index (RTI) prices from a third-party data provider, depending on the event duration, and calculates their average. |
Up | The bullish outcome. Up wins when the Settlement Price is higher than the Baseline Price. |
Down | The bearish outcome. Down wins when the Settlement Price is equal to or lower than the Baseline Price. |
Unlike standard prediction events, Up/Down Crypto Events use an automated rolling mechanism. Once one event ends, the next begins immediately, enabling continuous participation around the clock.
Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and price movements in Up/Down Events may occur even more rapidly. You may lose your entire investment. Please participate responsibly and manage your investment amount carefully.
2. Why Trade Up/Down Crypto Events on MEXC?
Short event cycles and fast settlement: Results may be determined in as little as 5 minutes, providing near-immediate settlement of users' predictions without the long wait associated with sports, political, or other longer-duration events.
Simple two-outcome format: Users only need to choose between Up and Down. The straightforward format makes it easy to get started, allowing even first-time users with no trading experience to get started quickly.
Transparent price calculation: Settlement prices are generated using a compliant third-party index and calculated based on a time-weighted methodology. The calculation process is transparent and helps reduce the impact of sudden price spikes and potential price manipulation near expiry.
Continuous availability: A new event opens immediately after the previous one settles, allowing eligible users to participate at any time without waiting for a specific match or scheduled event.
Although Up/Down Events settle quickly, price movements can be substantial over a very short period, and both potential returns and risks may be heightened. Please participate responsibly and only commit an amount you can afford to lose.
3. How to Trade Up/Down Crypto Events on MEXC
Navigation: Open the MEXC App → Trade → Prediction Markets → Up or Down → Select an asset → Choose a direction → Place an order → Await settlement
Before you begin:
1. Update the MEXC App to version 6.67.0 or later to access Up/Down Crypto Events.
2. This feature may be unavailable in certain regions due to regulatory requirements. Availability is subject to the information shown on the relevant page.
Step 1: Access the Up/Down section
Log in to the MEXC App and open the Up/Down section under Prediction Markets. Select an available asset—Bitcoin and Ether are supported at launch—and choose a 5-minute or 15-minute event to open its details page.
Step 2: Review the live market information
On the event details page, you can view the baseline price, real-time index price, Up and Down probability and estimated payouts, and the settlement countdown. New users should observe several cycles before placing an order to get familiar with price movements.
Step 3: Choose a direction and place an order
Tap Up or Down based on the outcome you expect, then enter the amount you want to invest. The page will display the estimated return if your prediction is correct. Carefully review the details, then slide to place the order.
Prices and probability may change in real time, and your order will be filled based on the price available when it is successfully submitted. Order placement may be suspended near settlement if liquidity is insufficient. Always refer to the information shown on the event page.
Step 4: Confirm the order details
After the order is placed, review the selected direction, invested amount, estimated return, and expiry time on the order details page. This information allows you to track the position before settlement.
4. How to View Your Crypto Up/Down Positions
Navigation: Open the MEXC App → Trade → Prediction Markets → Portfolio → Open
Under Open, you can view all unsettled Up/Down positions, including the asset, selected direction, committed amount, estimated return, and countdown to expiry. Settled orders are available under History.
5. How Up/Down Crypto Events Are Settled
When an event expires, the system automatically compares the settlement price with the baseline price to determine the result:
- If the settlement price is higher than the baseline price, Up wins and users who selected Up receive the corresponding payout.
- If the settlement price is equal to or lower than the baseline price, Down wins and users who selected Down receive the corresponding payout.
Settlement rules:
- The settlement price is based on a third-party real-time index.
- During the final minute before expiry, the system continuously collects index prices. The system collects 60 RTI prices for a 15-minute event and 20 RTI prices for a 5-minute event.
- The official settlement price is the average of these prices rather than a single spot price. This method reduces the effect of isolated price spikes near expiry.
- Settlement is automatic. Once settlement is complete, the relevant funds are credited automatically, and no manual action is required.
- After one event settles, the next event opens immediately.
6. Up/Down Crypto Events FAQ
6.1 How are Up/Down Crypto Events different from standard prediction events?
Standard prediction events often involve sports, politics, or other outcomes that may take longer to resolve. Up/Down Crypto Events track cryptocurrency index prices and automatically open and settle every 5 or 15 minutes, offering shorter event cycles and continuous availability.
6.2 Which assets are supported?
BTC and ETH are supported at launch. Additional cryptocurrency assets may be introduced in future updates. Refer to the MEXC platform for the latest information.
6.3 How is the Settlement Price determined, and can brief price spikes affect it?
The settlement price is calculated using consecutive real-time index prices from a third-party data provider during the final minute before expiry. Because the system uses an average rather than a single spot price, brief price spikes have less impact on the final settlement price. However, this calculation method does not eliminate market risk.
6.4 Can I close a position before the event expires?
Yes, if sufficient liquidity is available. You may sell the position before expiry to ock in profits or limit a loss. Availability is subject to the trading status shown on the event page.
6.5 When does the next event begin?
The next event opens automatically as soon as the previous event has settled. No additional waiting period is required.
6.6 When will the payout be credited if my prediction is correct?
After the event expires, the system settles it automatically. Once settlement is complete, the payout is credited to your MEXC Prediction Markets account. You can check it on the Assets page.
6.7 Can I participate in multiple events at the same time?
Yes. You can participate in events with different assets or durations at the same time. Each position is managed and settled independently.
Conclusion
Up/Down Crypto Events offer a simple way to make short-duration predictions on cryptocurrency price movements, with results available every 5 or 15 minutes. However, shorter event cycles also increase risk. Beginners are advised to start with small amounts, learn how the settlement rules work, and participate responsibly.