Bitcoin’s most predictable technical line sets BTC’s next low before rally

A long-term Bitcoin (BTC) technical structure is hinting at possible near-term losses ahead of a major rally, as the asset continues to hold above the $70,000 level.

In this line, analysis of the weekly chart shows a decade-long ascending trendline, often called a “parabolic guard”, that has consistently underpinned Bitcoin’s biggest bull runs, linking key macro lows and repeatedly acting as a launchpad for strong rallies. 

Historical data shared by cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez in an X post on April 11 indicates that each test of this rising support has been followed by outsized gains. 

In past cycles, rebounds from this level preceded moves of roughly 963% in 2017, about 261% in 2018, over 1,100% in 2020, and around 660% after the 2022 touchpoint.

These repeated reactions reinforce the trendline as one of Bitcoin’s most reliable long-term indicators. 

Notably, the current setup shows price approaching this ascending support, with a projected touch zone between $56,000 and $60,000, as it consolidates and then compresses while maintaining a broader uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.

The trendline’s upward slope suggests each cycle is forming at higher valuations. Recent price action shows Bitcoin pulling back from highs near at $126,000 toward this support, in line with past corrections that preceded renewed rallies. 

While not guaranteed, the consistency of this trendline makes it a key level, with the coming weeks critical in determining whether Bitcoin respects this support and rebounds.

Bitcoin price analysis 

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $71,580, down about 1.5% over the past 24 hours but still up more than 4% on the week.

Technical indicators remain mixed, with short- and long-term momentum diverging. The price is trading above the 50-day SMA at $69,505, suggesting near-term support, but remains well below the 200-day SMA at $89,298, indicating the broader trend is still under pressure.

The 14-day RSI stands at 61.58, reflecting neutral-to-moderately bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. 

This leaves room for further upside, though the lack of stronger momentum points to ongoing uncertainty. Overall, while short-term signals suggest stabilization, the longer-term structure has yet to confirm a sustained bullish reversal.