Shell (SHEL) Stock: What Drove the Q1 Earnings Beat and Why It’s Falling

TLDR

• Shell posted Q1 adjusted earnings of $6.92 billion, up from $3.26 billion the prior quarter, driven by a $1.93 billion profit from its oil trading desk.
• Oil and gas output dropped 4% compared to Q4 2024 due to the Iran conflict, with LNG production in Qatar shut down since early March.
• Shell raised its dividend by 5% and announced up to $3 billion in buybacks — down from $3.5 billion in recent quarters.
• Shell’s American depositary receipts fell around 1.9% in premarket trading, slightly more than peers Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
• Oil prices slipped on speculation that direct U.S.-Iran peace talks may be close to resuming, weighing on the broader energy sector.

Shell posted its strongest quarterly earnings in recent memory on Thursday, but the market wasn’t impressed. The stock fell in premarket trading as investors focused on a drop in production and softening oil prices.

Shell’s American depositary receipts were down 1.9% in premarket trading. Brent crude currently sits around $101 a barrel, down from a peak above $120, as speculation grows that U.S.-Iran peace talks could be about to resume.

Peers Chevron and Exxon Mobil were also lower, each falling around 3.9% to 4% in premarket trade as the broader energy sector sold off on the peace deal speculation.

Shell plc, SHEL

Shell’s Q1 adjusted earnings came in at $6.92 billion, up sharply from $3.26 billion in Q4 2024 and ahead of the $5.58 billion it posted in Q1 2025.

The standout driver was a $1.93 billion profit from the chemicals and products unit, which houses Shell’s oil trading desk. The wide swings in crude prices since the Iran war began have created ideal conditions for traders.

Before the conflict, Brent crude was around $73 a barrel. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz — which carries about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies — sent prices surging above $120 at one point. That kind of volatility is where oil traders make their money.

Production Takes a Hit

Despite the earnings beat, Shell’s oil and gas output fell 4% compared to Q4 2024. The company’s LNG production in Qatar has been offline since early March due to the conflict, and its Pearl GTL facility in Qatar has suffered damage from attacks.

Shell also announced last week it is acquiring Canadian shale producer ARC Resources for $16.4 billion, a move Sawan said would “deliver value for decades to come.” That deal adds to the company’s upstream footprint as it manages the impact of the Qatar shutdowns.

On the capital return side, Shell raised its dividend by 5% — a positive signal — but the $3 billion buyback programme for the next three months is a step down from the $3.5 billion announced in recent quarters.

Shell also benefited from higher refining margins. Its refining business, which processes crude into petrol and jet fuel, saw improved returns as tight supply kept product prices elevated.

Wider Sector Reaction

Shell isn’t alone in reporting bumper results. BP more than doubled its profits in Q1, and Norway’s Equinor posted $9.77 billion in quarterly earnings — its highest in three years.

The profit surge has drawn criticism from environmental groups. Friends of the Earth called for a strengthened windfall tax, though the UK’s Energy Profits Levy only applies to profits from North Sea extraction. The UK accounts for less than 5% of Shell’s global production.

Meanwhile, shipping giant Maersk said the energy price spike is adding roughly $500 million per month to its costs, which it is passing on to customers. CEO Vincent Clerc said the situation creates uncertainty around inflation and demand but stopped short of predicting specific outcomes.

Maersk’s US-flagged vessel the Alliance Fairfax, stranded in the Gulf since February, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday with US military escorts.

Shell’s Q1 LNG production in Qatar remains offline, with no timeline given for when operations at the Pearl GTL site will resume.

The post Shell (SHEL) Stock: What Drove the Q1 Earnings Beat and Why It’s Falling appeared first on CoinCentral.