This red state battle is the ultimate referendum on Republicans crossing Trump

President Donald Trump's ability to influence Republican primaries was evident when at least five out of eight MAGA candidates he endorsed unseated incumbents in Indiana State Legislature races. While the incumbents who lost will be able to serve out the rest of their terms, they won't be competing with Democrats in the general election. Trump is also hoping to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), and according to Salon's Russell Payne, that red state battle is about much more than Massie — it is a test of whether or not a Republican can make an enemy of Trump and still survive in the GOP.

On Tuesday, May 19, Kentucky Republicans will decide between libertarian/conservative Massie and the Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein.

Kentucky-based political strategist T.J. Litafik told Salon, "That part of Kentucky, particularly Kenton and Campbell County in the greater Cincinnati area, is sort of the heart of Thomas Massie's brand of politics, the liberty movement, and he has close affiliates who have been able to defeat more establishment-aligned candidates in Republican primaries for quite a few state House and state Senate seats, and even some local government seats up there."

Conservative activist Mark Meckler notes that Trump's influence on the GOP is being put to the test in a huge way.

Meckler told Salon, "This is the first time that I'm aware of where he's gone against a seated Republican incumbent, and doing it with an obviously serious war chest. So, I think the first thing is, what's Trump’s ceiling against a fortified incumbent? The follow-on to that is, you're looking at probably over 10 million spent against Massie. The question I have about that is, well, does that override 14 years of personal voter shifts in a district where Massey's won every single primary 75 percent plus?"

Meckler emphasized that in GOP primary battles where Trump is making an endorsement, it's important to analyze the margins on Election Day — even if the candidate Trump opposes prevails.

The conservative activist told Salon, "If Massie gets under 55 percent, that's a seriously wounded incumbent, and Trump can claim a moral victory. He won't love it, but he'll claim a moral victory there. If he drives (Massie) down to 55 percent, that's bad. If (Massie) wins 60 percent or over, what you see is that his brand and his constituent service beat the presidential ballistic missile. And that's a really big deal, right? The president and all this money coming at you — if he's over 60 percent, that really says something about Massie's personal brand."

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