Trump made 2026 about himself —and now Republicans are paying the price

President Donald Trump has proved to be such a polarizing figure in American politics, legal experts believe he has managed to make the 2026 midterm elections entirely about his issues.

“As the midterm elections near, three themes have begun to define the battle for control of the House of Representatives: redistricting, reruns, and retirements,” reported legal news website JD Supra on Thursday. In terms of redistricting, the authors pointed out that “partisan gerrymandering across multiple states, kicked off by Texas, has increased Republicans’ chances to retain their majority. This trend was buoyed by a recent Supreme Court decision on voting rights that opened the door for further redraws across the South that could net Republicans more than a dozen seats. A Virginia Supreme Court decision striking down a map benefitting Democrats provides further help to Republicans.”

As for reruns, the authors observed that “more than a dozen former House members have launched comeback bids this year, sensing a friendly political environment or district.”

Finally JD Supra noted that “at least 58 members of the House are not running for reelection this fall, more than half of which are retiring from public office; the remainder are running in state-wide elections. As President Trump’s approval ratings continue to decline due to the Iran War, tariffs, inflation, and affordability, more members may head for the exits in the coming months. Ultimately, this could be a record-breaking year for retirements.”

They added, “Until the Supreme Court decision on voting rights, Democrats were at least marginally favored to take control of the House, supported by the longstanding trend of the president’s party losing seats in midterm elections. But Republicans have major cash and redistricting advantages, led by fundraiser-in-chief Donald Trump. One Trump-aligned Super PAC, MAGA Inc, alone boasts a $300 million war chest. While the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) holds a relatively narrow $9 million cash on hand lead over its Democratic counterpart, the Republican National Committee’s cash on hand total of $38 million is more than twice that of the Democratic National Committee’s $13.8 million as of the end of Q1 2026.”

In terms of redistricting, it identified the key races as those involving Reps. Kevin Kiley (CA-I), Young Kim (CA-R), Ken Calvert (CA-R), Marcy Kaptur (OH-D), Troy Carter (LA-D) and Cleo Fields (LA-D). In terms of reruns, they include Reps. Colin Allred (TX-D), Elaine Luria (VA-D), Madison Cawthorn (FL-R) and Chris Collins (FL-R). As for retirements, they include Reps. Don Bacon (NE-R), Jared Golden (ME-D) and David Schweikert (AZ-R).

Writing about Trump’s claim that the 2026 midterm elections will be stolen because, according to the president, the 2020 election was also stolen from him, Washington Post conservative columnist George F. Will urged the Trump movement to accept that his 2020 claims have been thoroughly litigated and debunked.

“Someone should read to him ‘Lost, Not Stolen,’ a 2022 report by eight conservatives (two former Republican senators, three former federal appellate judges, a former Republican solicitor general, and two Republican election law specialists),” Will explained. “They examined all 187 counts in the 64 court challenges filed in multiple states by Trump and his supporters. Twenty cases were dismissed before hearings on their merits, 14 were voluntarily dismissed by Trump and his supporters before hearings. Of the 30 that reached hearings on the merits, Trump’s side prevailed in only one, Pennsylvania, involving far too few votes to change the state’s result.”

Will added, “Trump’s batting average? .016. In Arizona, the most exhaustively scrutinized state, a private firm selected by Trump’s advocates confirmed Trump’s loss, finding 99 additional Biden votes and 261 fewer Trump votes.” Therefore he wrote of Trump, “The man who never alters his opinion is like standing water, and breeds reptiles of the mind.”

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