Senate tension could erode confidence in PHL institutions, cloud reforms

By Erika Mae P. Sinaking, Reporter and Kaela Patricia B. Gabriel

POLITICAL TENSION in the Philippine Senate risks undermining confidence in public institutions and clouding prospects for economic reforms aimed at shielding vulnerable populations, analysts said over the weekend.

“Ongoing political tensions in the Senate could delay critical legislation by diverting time to investigations, weakening bipartisan coalitions, and hindering budget approvals,” Carl Marc L. Ramota, a professor at the University of the Philippines Manila’s Department of Social Sciences, told BusinessWorld via Facebook Messenger.

“This gridlock, compounded by the economy’s struggles with high inflation, rising oil prices, and sluggish growth, leaves vulnerable groups like the unemployed, low-income consumers, and small business owners exposed to unaddressed economic shocks,” he said.

The Senate last week saw another leadership shake-up, with Senator Alan Peter S. Cayetano taking over as Senate president after a vote that also reshuffled key committee chairmanships.

The chamber is also under scrutiny for shielding Senator Ronald “Bato” M. dela Rosa, wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), who resurfaced after a prolonged absence to cast his vote only to retreat again to evade arrest.

While the chamber seems to be in chaos, Jean S. Encinas-Franco, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman, said she expects lawmakers to eventually shift back to their legislative agenda, especially those identified by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. as urgent.

Ms. Franco, who is also a former director of the Senate Economic Planning Office, said lawmakers are eager to signal that they remain functional despite high-stakes proceedings. However, she warned that deeper friction erodes the foundational relationship between the state and the public.

“The most vulnerable right now is trust in our institutions and the legitimacy of our [government],” she said in a Viber message.

“Trust in institutions is the glue that holds everything together. Without it, it will be difficult for the citizens to comply with [government] policies. It also undermines the government’s capability to push for economic stability and the rule of law,” she added.

IMPEACHMENT COURT
The chamber could help regain trust in the government and recover its legitimacy when it convenes as a Senate court for the trial of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who was impeached for the second time last week.

“Due to what happened recently, the Senate became the microcosm of the continuous political decay happening in our institutions,” Paul Micah S.A. Francisco, a political science assistant professor at the University of Santo Tomas, said via Messenger chat. “Continuing the proceedings will help recover some of the legitimacy and trust in the government.”

The Senate leadership change coincided with the House of Representatives’ vote to impeach Ms. Duterte, raising questions over how her trial will be handled. Mr. Cayetano earlier denied claims the shake-up was meant to derail the proceedings, pledging to convene the impeachment court on Monday, May 18.

“Not proceeding with the impeachment will just erode our institutions further, and from an optics standpoint, it might not be good for the Philippine Senate and its leadership,” he said.

For Eric Daniel C. de Torres, the Senate has no basis for delaying the proceedings amid mounting public pressure. Still, he said the determination of guilt of Ms. Duterte relies not only on the evidence but also political ambitions of the senator-judges, who are seeking reelection or a higher office.

“There is really public pressure as a snowballing effect to accountability of public officials; the other is that no event in the Senate could either withhold or delay the trial [such as] elections or late acceptance of the articles of impeachment,” Mr. de Torres said through Facebook Messenger.

Mr. Francisco noted that the impeachment trial against Ms. Duterte may also play out differently this time considering the meticulous procedures followed by the House of Representatives, giving less room for technical loopholes.

“The impeachment process this year has carefully followed the procedures that the Supreme Court has laid down. This is to avoid any more technicalities,” he said.

Ms. Duterte was first impeached in February 2025 with the endorsement of 200 congressmen that allowed the House to send the impeachment articles directly to the Senate without conducting any hearing. It died in the Senate as it archived the articles after a Supreme Court ruling declaring the proceedings unconstitutional.

Mr. Francisco added that the transparency of the proceedings of the second impeachment trial against the Vice-President has given the public the chance to scrutinize the evidence.

INVESTOR SENTIMENT
Meanwhile, IBON Foundation Executive Director Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa said the focus on investor sensitivity over political developments tends to obscure underlying structural deficits.

“The extent to which investor confidence depends on political stability is often overstated,” Mr. Africa said in a separate Viber message. “Visible elite impunity doubtless damages perceptions of governance but the effect depends on the kind of investment.”

Mr. Africa noted that while speculative, short-term capital reacts erratically to headlines, long-term direct investments historically tolerate institutional decay.

He pointed to historical inflows since the 1970s that expanded despite martial law, coups, and corruption scandals. “The claim that political instability scares away investors is simplistic,” Mr. Africa said.

According to him, the ongoing disruption in Congress will not derail major structural transformations because the current legislative agenda is inherently fragmented.

“The LEDAC (Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council) agenda for instance is actually fragmented and insufficiently transformative with no serious legislation for real Filipino industrialization, large-scale agricultural development, or ambitious universal social services,” he said.

He urged a shift in focus toward evaluating how policy serves domestic development rather than prioritizing market perceptions.

“Political turmoil matters but investors clearly have a tolerance for this as long as profitability conditions remain intact, and all sides of the mainstream political fence have the same investor-biased economic policies anyway,” Mr. Africa said.

“From a long-term development perspective, the country’s economic weaknesses are much deeper than episodic political turbulence,” he added.