Cardano Price Faces a 36% Drop Risk Even With Big ADA Upgrades Ahead

Key Insights:

• The Cardano price is weak near $0.39 and has broken below a bear-flag trendline, activating a drop target near $0.25.
• Big upgrades like the Midnight privacy network, the stablecoin vote, the Clarity Act support, and new CNFT activity have not stopped the short-term downtrend.
• Any recovery needs Cardano to move back above $0.43 and $0.47, or the risk of a deeper fall stays higher than a rebound.

Cardano price fell more than 6% in the past day and now trades near $0.39. It has also slipped below the $0.40 mark, which makes the Cardano price prediction weaker in the short term.

This fall comes at a time when the network has several major updates on the way, which makes the ADA price action even more confusing for some traders. To understand why the price is falling even when the news looks strong, we look at both the chart and the fundamentals.

Cardano Price Analysis Points Toward $0.25

Cardano price broke below the lower line of a bear flag near $0.40. This pattern forms when the price falls sharply, moves in a range for a short time, and then continues falling.

Breaking the lower line activates a target based on the earlier drop, which points ADA price toward $0.25. That level also matches an old support zone.

For any real recovery to start, ADA needs to move back above $0.43, as explained later in the piece. After that, it needs to break $0.47.

These two lines stopped the price many times before. With the crypto market turning red again, reaching these levels will be hard unless the whole market becomes stronger.

Strong Network Updates Arrive, but They Have Not Helped the Price Yet

Even during this drop, Cardano has some of its biggest updates in months. The network’s new privacy system, called Midnight, is launching.

It lets developers build apps where some information stays private, which helps Cardano compete in the privacy space.

A major vote is also happening for a new stablecoin on the network. A stablecoin is a token meant to stay near $1, and the vote has already crossed more than 3 billion ADA.

That shows strong interest from the community and bigger builders. There is also growing support for the Clarity Act in the United States.

This proposal tries to make crypto rules clearer by explaining which digital assets are securities. More clarity helps networks like Cardano because large companies do not like unclear rules.

New tools from Chainlink are also coming in, giving Cardano apps access to outside price data and other information. CNFT (Cardano Non-Fungible Token) activity is still alive as well, showing creators are building even though the price is falling.

Even with all this, the price has not reacted. Many buyers may be waiting for the market to turn stable before taking new risks. This creates a gap between strong upgrades on paper and weak price action on the chart.

Some analysts online remain bullish and point to long-term patterns such as accumulation structures that play out over months.

But these views do not match the current daily structure. Unless ADA moves above $0.43 again, the break from the bear flag stays active.

Market Weakness Still Affects Cardano More Than Expected

The larger crypto market is down about 4%, but Cardano price is falling harder. At press time, the ADA price was down over 6%.

When the whole market is weak, even strong networks often get pulled down. This is why ADA may still move lower even though it has strong upgrades lined up.

If ADA price stays below $0.40, the next warning areas sit near $0.38 and $0.31. A break under these could send the price closer to the full bear-flag target near $0.25.

For now, the chance of a deeper dip is higher than the chance of a fast rebound.

Cardano price prediction stays bearish until ADA climbs back above $0.43 and $0.47. The network may be improving, but the chart shows that buyers are still holding back.