Ukraine Increases Deep Drone Strikes Gaining Leverage For Peace Talks

Despite ongoing peace talks, Russia and Ukraine remain locked in a brutal war, with both sides trying to break the other’s resolve. Russia’s current strategy relies on combining large scale ground assaults with widespread missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukraine has responded by reinforcing its defensive positions and by launching its own deep strikes against Russian targets. Although Ukrainian defenses have suffered setbacks, their deep strikes have been fairly successful, largely due to Ukraine’s advanced drone fleet. These drone strikes have surged in recent weeks, weakening Russia’s warfighting capacity and giving Ukraine greater leverage in negotiations.

The Increasing Number Of Deep Drone Strikes

In late November, Ukrainian media reported a series of deep strike campaigns, using their drones to attack targets well inside Russia. They have continued this campaign into December. While some drones were intercepted by Russian air defenses, videos and images posted on social media indicate that many indeed reached their targets. Although Russian sources have not corroborated these strikes, available footage suggests a rising tempo of attacks on military facilities, defense industries, and the Russian oil sector.

Since late November, Ukraine has targeted military bases linked to Russian units operating in Ukraine. A video posted on November 27 shows the aftermath of a strike on a Russian National Guard base in Grozny, Chechnya. Another video posted in early December shows a drone striking a base used by Akhmat militants, a detachment of the Russian National Guard, in Gudermes, Chechnya. A third video, captured by CCTV, appears to show a drone attacking a base in Kaspiysk in the Republic of Dagestan. These attacks compliment several airfields and air defense sites that Ukraine has also claimed to have targeted in late November.

Ukraine has also struck the factories that produce the equipment essential for Russia’s war effort. A video from November 25 shows drones striking the VNIIR Progress factory in the Chuvash Republic of Cheboksary. This factory specializes in electronics, including the development of electronic warfare systems. Another video shows a drone strike against a facility in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone that reportedly produces automotive parts for Russian military vehicles. Additional images from November 24 show the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on the Beriev aircraft plant in Taganrog in the Rostov region, resulting in significant damage and the potential loss of a Russian strategic bomber.

In addition to these military targets, Ukraine has increased its strikes on the Russian oil industry, the backbone of their economy. Videos released earlier this week show the aftermath of attacks on oil depots in the Tambov and Oryol regions. Footage from last week shows refineries in Afipsky and Saratov that were also struck. Ukraine has claimed that it hit 28 oil refineries or depots in a coordinated series of strikes at the end of November. These attacks have had a significant impact, causing gasoline shortages in Russia and reducing its capacity to export oil. The resulting loss of revenue further undermines Russia’s ability to fund the war.

Ukraine’s Advanced Fleet Of Strike Drones

Throughout the war, Ukraine’s defense has relied heavily on its commercial sector’s ability to rapidly design and field new drones that provide fresh capabilities to its armed forces. In this case, Ukraine’s growing capacity to launch sophisticated strikes deep into Russian territory stems from its fleet of long-range loitering munitions, particularly the AN-196 Liutyi and the FP-1, which together form the core of its deep-strike capability.

Ukraine began developing the Liutyi in 2022 in response to the Russian Shahed drones. Unlike the Shahed, which is launched in large numbers to overwhelm air defenses, the Liutyi uses precision navigation, machine vision, and autonomous guidance to penetrate defenses and strike exact points on a target. Although it carries a smaller payload than the Shahed, its design allows highly efficient use of explosive mass. Over the past year, the Liutyi payload has increased from 50 to 75 kilograms, and its range has expanded. While official statements cite a range of 1000 kilometers, Ukrainian forces have repeatedly struck targets 2000 kilometers inside Russia. The Liutyi has successfully hit many high value targets, with a strong focus on oil refineries during the summer. Production has accelerated, supported by German funding for 500 additional units and expanded domestic manufacturing.

Complementing the Liutyi is the FP-1, another long-range strike drone produced by the private firm Fire Point. It has a comparable range of 1600 kilometers and a payload between 60 and 100 kilograms. The FP-1 was designed for mass production, costing significantly less than the Liutyi, but with a less advanced guidance system and a plywood body. Despite its low cost, Ukrainian media has reported that the FP-1 has been effective in strikes on oil facilities, logistics hubs, command centers, and ammunition depots across the Russian rear. Its simpler, cheaper design allows Ukraine to produce it in much larger numbers, reportedly around 100 per day, making the FP-1 a reliable workhorse that complements the Liutyi’s more advanced precision role.

A range of other drones and missiles supports the Liutyi and FP-1. The FP-2 fills the niche for shorter range strikes, carrying a payload of 105 kilograms with a range of 200 kilometers. Reported uses of the FP-2 include strikes on bases in Crimea and Russian positions around Avdiivka and Pokrovsk. Ukraine has also developed the FP-5 Flamingo, a cruise missile with a 3000-kilometer range and a significantly larger payload intended for deep strikes against strategic infrastructure, although its usage has been somewhat limited. Together, these systems give Ukraine a diverse arsenal of strike drones that can be tailored to specific missions.

The Impact Of The Drone Strikes On Peace Talks

These drone strikes have broadly weakened Russia’s long term warfighting capacity. They hit at multiple levels, directly targeting Russian forces, limiting their ability to supply those forces, and reducing the resources available to fund soldiers and equipment. By degrading the systems that support Russian operations, Ukraine aims to shorten the war by making continued fighting more difficult.

On the near-term, these long-range drone strikes will have significant implications for the ongoing peace talks. By demonstrating the ability to hit strategic targets deep inside Russia, Ukraine shows that it can continue inflicting meaningful damage if the war continues. This capability undermines any expectation by Moscow that Ukraine’s strike potential will decline and signals that Ukraine can sustain pressure well into the future.

The strikes also generate direct economic pressure. By targeting oil refining and storage facilities, Ukraine imposes a financial burden on the Russian state. Repairing these sites requires resources that would otherwise support the war effort, and repeated disruptions tighten Russia’s already constrained economy. This pressure is intended to influence the negotiations by making continued conflict increasingly expensive for Moscow.

Domestic political effects add another layer of pressure. Economic hardships and disruptions to electricity, transportation, and essential services, will result in significant frustration in the Russian populace. These hardships may not immediately threaten President Putin’s hold on power, but they increase the political risks of extending the war. Mounting public discomfort reduces Russia’s negotiating flexibility and pushes its leadership to seek relief through a settlement.

Drones were always expected to play a decisive role on the Russian-Ukraine battlefield, and they have fully lived up to that expectation. TB-2 Bayraktars, Shaheds, Orlan-10s, FPV drones, and fiber-optic drones have all shaped the current conflict. With the prospect of peace on the horizon, the drone strikes carried out by the AN-196 Liutyi and the F-1 have the potential to be central in shaping the conflict’s outcome.