- Selling Bitcoin holdings is not among Strategy’s considerations.
- There is a 75% chance that JPMorgan will remove MSTR from its MSCI index.
- A potential MSTR decline has been priced in since October 10.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes Strategy will keep its Bitcoin reserve intact even as its MSTR stock faces a potential exit from major MSCI indexes. Hougan walked through the index changes and argued that market reactions to the digital asset treasury classification have already been reflected in Strategy’s share price.
Related: Inside the MSTR Controversy: Did JPMorgan and MSCI Spark a Crypto Backlash?
MSCI Review Raises $2.8 Billion MSTR Overhang
According to Hougan, there is roughly a 75% chance that JPMorgan removes MSTR from its MSCI index list on January 15, 2026, after finalizing Strategy’s treatment as a Digital Asset Treasury (DAT). If that decision is confirmed, index-linked funds could eventually sell as much as $2.8 billion worth of MSTR into the market.
Even so, Hougan argued that the bulk of that risk has been absorbed since October 10, when JPMorgan first outlined how it intended to classify DATs. He said the stock’s behavior since that announcement suggests investors already adjusted to the prospect of forced index selling.
Hougan Sees Strategy Valuation Driven by Execution, Not Index Status
Based on his experience with how markets react to developments such as the potential removal of MSTR from MSCI indexes, Hougan does not expect any significant change in the former’s pricing. According to him, in the long term, the value of MSTR is based on how well it executes its strategy, not on whether index funds are forced to own it.
In the meantime, Hougan has dismissed the panic about MSTR falling below net asset value (NAV), which could trigger a selloff of Bitcoins held by Strategy. According to him, MSTR has two relevant obligations on its debt, including paying approximately $800 million a year in interest, and it needs to convert or roll over specific debt instruments as they come due.
Since interest payments are not a near-term concern, Hougan believes Strategy is stable enough not to bother selling its Bitcoin holdings. He further noted that the company has $1.4 billion in cash, meaning it can make its dividend payments easily for a year and a half.
Related: Strategy (MSTR) Faces Exclusion From Major Indices in January
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Source: https://coinedition.com/selling-its-bitcoin-holdings-is-not-among-strategys-considerations-bitwise-cio/
