SHIB Market Resets as Open Interest Falls & Outflows Persist

• SHIB remains below key EMAs, keeping sellers in control despite slowing downside momentum
• Falling open interest and outflows suggest leverage reset rather than panic selling
• Shiba Inu recovery framework may improve trust as ecosystem revenues fund user repayments

Shiba Inu enters the final day of 2025 under visible pressure, as technical weakness defines its near-term outlook. Market data shows SHIB/USD locked in a persistent downtrend on the four-hour chart. Prices remain below key moving averages, reflecting fragile momentum and cautious trader behavior. 

However, derivatives data and on-chain flows suggest positioning may reset ahead of 2026. Besides technical factors, ecosystem developments now play a growing role in shaping expectations.

SHIB Price Structure Signals Ongoing Bearish Control

Shiba Inu continues to trade below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-period exponential moving averages on the 4H timeframe. Consequently, sellers maintain structural control. The token has printed consistent lower highs and lower lows since early December. This pattern confirms a controlled decline rather than panic selling.

The breakdown below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $0.00000760 marked a key technical shift. That level now caps upside attempts. Moreover, SHIB trades near $0.00000708, hovering above cycle support around $0.00000701. This zone remains critical for short-term direction.

A decisive move below $0.00000700 would likely open downside toward $0.00000680 and possibly $0.00000650. However, buyers could attempt stabilization near current levels. 

Any recovery faces immediate resistance between $0.00000722 and $0.00000730. A stronger reversal would require reclaiming $0.00000757 and later $0.00000800. Until then, rebounds appear corrective.

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Directional indicators reinforce this view. DMI readings show ADX below 20, signaling weak trend strength. Hence, consolidation may persist unless volume expands decisively.

Derivatives and On-Chain Data Hint at Market Reset

Shiba Inu futures open interest reveals a clear leverage cycle across 2024 and 2025. Sharp open interest spikes aligned with price rallies and short-term tops. These periods ended with rapid deleveraging. By mid-2025, open interest stabilized between $100 million and $250 million, reflecting cautious participation.

Significantly, late December open interest dropped near $80.9 million. This decline suggests reduced leverage and lower liquidation risk. Additionally, the market appears to reset rather than capitulate.

Spot flow data supports this interpretation. Net outflows dominate across recent months, indicating steady exchange withdrawals. Moreover, brief inflow spikes during May and July faded quickly alongside short-lived rebounds. 

From October onward, outflows intensified as prices declined. Late December recorded another net outflow near $1 million. This behavior suggests accumulation and reduced immediate sell pressure.

Shiba Inu Ecosystem Introduces Structured Recovery Plan

Beyond price action, the Shiba Inu ecosystem announced a formal recovery framework tied to the Plasma Bridge incident. The initiative, known as Shib Owes You, introduces a smart contract-based repayment structure. Affected users will receive Ethereum-based NFTs that record claim values on-chain.

Additionally, the framework allows flexible claim management. Users may merge multiple claims or split holdings for partial liquidity. Funding will come from stricter oversight of ecosystem revenue streams. Consequently, all projects using the Shiba Inu brand must contribute to the recovery pool.

Technical Outlook for Shiba Inu

Shiba Inu price structure remains technically compressed as key levels stay clearly defined heading into October. 

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $0.00001238, followed by $0.00001264 and $0.00001286, where sellers previously capped rebounds. A confirmed breakout above this cluster could shift momentum and open the path toward $0.00001472, with $0.00001600 acting as the next major extension zone.

On the downside, $0.00001180 continues to serve as trendline support and the primary level buyers must defend. A sustained loss of this area would weaken the structure and expose SHIB to $0.00001100, with deeper downside risk toward $0.00000999. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA near $0.00001364 remains a critical resistance ceiling. A clean flip above this level would strengthen the medium-term bullish case.

Technically, SHIB appears to be compressing within a descending wedge pattern. This setup often precedes volatility expansion once price exits the range. 

Consequently, directional conviction remains limited until a breakout or breakdown confirms bias. Momentum indicators suggest balance rather than trend dominance, reinforcing the importance of volume confirmation.

Will Shiba Inu Go Up?

Shiba Inu’s October outlook depends on whether buyers can hold $0.00001180 long enough to challenge the $0.00001264–$0.00001286 resistance zone. If inflows strengthen and price breaks higher, SHIB could attempt a move toward $0.00001472 and potentially $0.00001600. 

However, failure to defend support would invalidate the accumulation base and increase downside exposure. For now, SHIB trades in a decisive zone, with technical confirmation set to define the next leg.

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