Onchain Metrics Show Bitcoin Whales Are Still in Distribution Mode

TLDR

• Onchain analytics reveal that Bitcoin whales are currently distributing rather than accumulating.
• Julius Moreno stated that recent whale activity is mainly due to exchanges consolidating their holdings.
• Blockchain data shows a continued decline in whale wallet balances and mid-sized address holdings.
• Long-term Bitcoin holders have shifted back to selling after a period of accumulation.
• Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing outflows which are contributing to the observed distribution trend.

Onchain analytics contradict recent reports of Bitcoin whale accumulation, instead pointing to steady distribution by large holders and exchanges. Blockchain data shows activity misinterpreted as accumulation is mostly exchanges moving funds across wallets, skewing perceptions. Meanwhile, market sentiment stays mixed as volatility indicators tighten and long-term holders cautiously resume buying.

Whale Wallet Activity Largely Exchange-Driven

Recent onchain metrics show large wallets are not accumulating but are instead distributing Bitcoin in recent weeks.

Julius Moreno, head of research, stated, “Whales are not buying an enormous amount of Bitcoin” in a post on X. He explained that exchange consolidation has inflated the appearance of whale accumulation by moving funds into fewer wallets.

This activity misleads analysts tracking whale wallet balances, as exchange actions mimic accumulation on surface-level data. Moreno emphasized that “most BTC whale data out there has been ‘affected’ by exchanges consolidating.” This creates a distorted view of market sentiment and weakens bullish narratives.

Long-Term Holders Shift Back to Selling

Wallets that held Bitcoin for extended periods are reportedly distributing again after months of accumulation.

Blockchain analytics platforms have recorded a shift in behavior, with net distribution increasing since late last year. Moreno confirmed adjusted data show continued drops in whale holdings, especially among 100–1,000 BTC wallets.

This trend coincides with ongoing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which may still influence current whale wallet metrics. Despite this, some long-term holders are beginning to re-enter the market on a small scale. VanEck’s Matthew Sigel noted a gradual return to buying after large-scale selling pressure in prior months.

Sentiment Mixed as Volatility Squeeze Tightens

Bitcoin’s current price action reflects reduced volatility, as Bollinger Bands narrow to their tightest since July.

TradingView data reports the bands have tightened to under $3,500, signaling a potential price move ahead. Historical patterns show previous squeezes have led to both upward and downward price swings.

Back in July, a similar pattern preceded a three-month rise, while a February squeeze led to a decline. Bitcoin is currently trading just above $90,000, staying clear of the sub-$80,000 lows from November.

Social media sentiment has turned optimistic early in the year, driven by retail investors. However, Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan advised restraint, urging retail traders to stay realistic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SS03sGwoG3U

“We need retail to continue to be a bit cautious, a bit pessimistic, a bit impatient,” Quinlivan said in a video update. This contrasts with fear signals from other sentiment tools that have flagged negative market emotions.

Predictions Continue Despite Mixed Market Signals

Social media figure Kim claimed Bitcoin could exceed $270,000 next year, citing weakening fiat currencies.

He based this on Bitcoin’s historical price swings and broader macroeconomic influences but offered little supporting data. Kim previously forecast a $220,000 surge in November, which failed to materialize.

He also asserted BTC could replace the US dollar by 2026, calling current prices a “manipulation-driven discount.” However, his predictions have often missed the mark, leaving market participants skeptical of his outlook.

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