XRP Enters 2026 Under Pressure Despite SEC Deal And ETF Fund Inflows

TLDR

• XRP ETFs attracted $1.4B since launch, equal to 2.3% of total supply
• XRP dropped from $3.66 to $1.85 during 2025 despite legal and ETF news
• XRP daily active addresses fell 94% from March peak to December 2025
• XRP trades near $1.80, risking a fall to $1.60 if support fails

XRP begins 2026 under pressure despite major wins in 2025, including a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and over $1.4 billion in inflows from newly launched spot ETFs. While these developments once boosted market sentiment, XRP’s price and network activity are showing weakness at the start of the new year.

SEC Settlement and ETF Launch Failed to Hold Price Gains

XRP ended 2025 with two major events: the conclusion of its long-standing legal battle with the SEC and the launch of U.S.-based spot exchange-traded funds. The lawsuit was settled on May 8, and it drove XRP to a seven-year high of $3.66 by July 18.

However, the price later dropped, losing more than 50% of its value and reaching $1.58 in October. By the end of 2025, XRP closed at $1.85, underperforming most digital asset indexes.

The introduction of Spot XRP ETFs in November generated initial enthusiasm. According to SoSoValue, these funds attracted $1.06 billion in the first 24 days. The total inflows reached over $1.4 billion by year-end. This capital equals 2.3% of the total XRP supply.

Despite these inflows, price momentum weakened. XRP’s underperformance during the ETF launch period created concern among analysts and traders.

Network Activity and On-Chain Data Point to Weak Engagement

Data from Glassnode shows a clear drop in XRP Ledger usage. Daily active addresses fell from over 600,000 in March to just 38,500 by December 18, a 94% decrease.

Exchange-held XRP reached its lowest level since 2018, suggesting that holders are not moving their assets frequently. Market velocity also stayed near historical lows, reinforcing the trend of reduced transaction activity.

These signs raise questions about XRP’s current utility and adoption, even with the availability of ETFs. On-chain data remains disconnected from the token’s trading interest.

Key Price Levels and Technical Indicators Guide Market Outlook

Technical indicators reveal that XRP failed to stay above its 50-week moving average of $1.87 and slipped near the $1.80 support zone. This support is seen as crucial by analysts and is based on the 100-week EMA and the low reached on November 21.

If XRP remains above $1.80, analysts believe a move toward $2.00 could occur. The RSI sits at 48, which is considered neutral and allows room for upward moves. Some forecasts suggest a short-term recovery to $2.20.

However, if the token falls below $1.80, long liquidations may increase, pushing the price to $1.61. The next support could appear near the 200-day EMA, currently at $1.38.

Analyst Views Remain Divided on 2026 Price Direction

Some market watchers are cautious. Trader Peter Brandt shared a chart showing a possible double top pattern, warning XRP could fall below $1 in the coming weeks or months.

Others are more positive. Analyst Chad Steingraber expects the price to rise to $10 in 2026, citing growing ETF flows. Standard Chartered forecasts a price above $8, citing stronger regulatory clarity and more institutional interest.

Regulatory policy remains a factor. With the Trump administration continuing its industry-friendly stance, analysts believe Ripple’s business ties may help maintain positive sentiment in the long term.

Still, 2026 starts with XRP under pressure. The two main factors for recovery remain maintaining support near $1.80 and increased network usage and ETF inflows that reduce market supply.

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