Analysis: One indicator suggests that Bitcoin bottomed out in late November last year, and there is still significant upside potential.
PANews reported on January 6th that, according to CoinDesk, in late November 2025, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $80,000, at which point the ratio of profitable short-term holders' supply to losing short-term holders' supply fell to historical levels consistent with major or local bear market bottoms. Glassnode data shows that this ratio dropped to 0.013 on November 24th. Previously, reaching this level has consistently marked local bottoms or absolute bear market lows, including in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. During the November trough, the 7-day moving average of profitable short-term holders' supply fell to approximately 30,000 Bitcoins, while the losing supply surged to 2.45 million Bitcoins, the highest since the FTX crash in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed out near $15,000. Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has rebounded to approximately $94,000, an increase of over 7%. During this period, the supply from short-term holders who were losing money decreased to 1.9 million tokens, while those who were making profits rebounded to 850,000 tokens, with a ratio of approximately 0.45.
Historically, when this ratio approaches 1, it tends to break through and continue to widen, with Bitcoin prices also tending to rise continuously. Currently, the ratio is below 0.5%, indicating that the indicator still has significant room to expand before reaching equilibrium. Market tops typically occur when this ratio rises to close to 100.
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