Blockworks co-founders' 27 predictions for 2026: Ethereum's rise, Bitcoin's decline, Solana's "disappearance," and a major reshuffle in the crypto industry.

Compiled & translated by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Mike Ippolito, Co-founder of Blockworks

Host: David Hoffman, Bankless

Key points summary

David Hoffman and Mike Ippolito sat down to discuss why 2025, while setting new all-time highs, seemed exceptionally challenging, and why this tension is crucial for 2026. They believe the crypto industry is entering a phase similar to the "2002 dot-com boom"—a period of diminishing speculation, rising fundamentals, and accelerated consolidation. The conversation covered the reasons for Ethereum's potential resurgence, the possible struggles with Bitcoin sentiment, the actual performance of prediction markets and staking contracts, and the key considerations for builders and investors as the crypto industry moves from hype to genuine value creation.

(This video is based on 27 predictions made by Mike, but it does not cover all of them; it only selects some key points for in-depth discussion.)

Summary of key viewpoints

• I hope that cryptocurrencies can have a greater positive impact on the world, and I'm tired of the crypto industry being labeled as "wild west" and "scam".
• Bitcoin will underperform gold in 2026.
• 2026 will be a very good year for DeFi.
• 2026 will be Ethereum's year, while Bitcoin may have a bad year, Solana will have a relatively quiet year, and Hyperliquid will face challenges.
• 2025 was both the best and the worst year; we did not see the price bull market that everyone had been hoping for.
• The cryptocurrency market is gradually becoming more rational and fundamentally based, moving away from its past wild west-like, irrational state.
• If you can identify projects with compound growth potential and choose the right agreements, there will be good opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
• In 2026, we are likely to continue to see consolidation trends across several key categories. Over the next three years, "survival is key" will be the dominant theme in the industry.
• The builders must be prepared to be as creative as possible, think big, and strive to achieve their goals. They will either be acquired or emerge victorious and consolidate their respective fields.
• 2025 and 2026 are the years for strategic planning. Without a frenzy, no one will suddenly become very rich because of cryptocurrencies.
• During a cycle, the best time to persevere is when people feel bored, tired, or worn down by the market.
• 2026 will be a year of consolidation for several key categories; another theme is the fusion of the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
• If there's one DATS worth watching, it's probably Tom Lee's.
• Traders want to be able to complete all their cryptocurrency and stock transactions on the same platform.
• Ethereum is more like a chain for asset issuance, while Solana is more like an on-chain price discovery platform for decentralized exchanges.
• Quantum computing is not just a cryptocurrency issue; it will have an impact on society as a whole.
• Centralized exchanges will expand downwards or upwards, depending on their strategic structure. We will see more acquisitions in the future, with both launch platforms and centralized exchanges actively participating.

Looking back at 2025: The best and worst year

David Hoffman: Looking ahead to 2026, how would you assess or summarize the state of the cryptocurrency industry in 2025?

Mike Ippolito: In my opinion, 2025 was both the best and the worst year. The main reason is that we didn't see the price bull market everyone was expecting. While Bitcoin and some major cryptocurrencies hit all-time highs, the overall performance was below expectations, especially for investors in fringe altcoins. Most people suffered heavy losses unless they were very lucky enough to pick a few well-performing coins.

Ethereum and Solana broke all-time highs at different times, but the magnitude was very small, leaving the market perplexed overall. This may have been the most challenging year for cryptocurrency investing, especially for investors with a high risk tolerance. From a price perspective, this year has been filled with chaos and challenges.

I believe the crypto industry is more meaningful now than ever. A key theme this year is "cognitive dissonance." Many will find this situation illogical: the US regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies seems to have shifted to a "bear hug," we've seen the emergence of many brilliant projects, and we've gained a clearer direction. Logically, this should drive up asset prices, but the market hasn't followed suit.

The underlying reason is that the cryptocurrency market is gradually shifting from its past wild west-like, irrational state to a more rational and fundamentally-based one. This change was predicted before, but it's only now truly beginning to manifest. Many excellent projects in the market are continuously improving, yet their prices continue to fall. This phenomenon may become a theme in 2026, as the market gradually shifts from speculative valuations to fundamental valuations.

While many projects on the market are excellent, their pricing has been consistently underwhelming. I believe this will continue to plague investors until 2026. However, if investors can identify projects with compound growth potential and choose the right deals, there will be good opportunities in 2026 and beyond.

David Hoffman: In a sense, while we did see all-time highs, the market didn't really feel the bullish atmosphere. Furthermore, 2025 didn't attract a new group of cryptocurrency investors. In fact, all cryptocurrency investors have been in the space for at least three years, with the median now probably five. This means that market participants' expectations for the industry had already taken shape, but those expectations were dashed this year. As you said, we're becoming more mature. Things are no longer the Wild West; the market's expectations for the Wild West haven't been reflected, and I think that's contributed to the sluggish market activity.

Mike Ippolito: I agree, and I'd like to give the audience an analogy, one that everyone likes to use the internet industry as a comparison. I think we're currently in a phase similar to Web 2.0 in late 2001 and early 2002. During the dot-com bubble, there were many bold ideas, and everything seemed possible. People envisioned building a complete internet world, and while that vision ultimately proved correct, the path dependence and time planning at the time were clearly problematic, leading to excessive infrastructure development.

Recently, I've heard a lot of discussion about AI-driven technologies, especially regarding GPU usage. The situation with dark fiber optics between 2001 and 2002 was the exact opposite of today's GPU situation. Back then, the construction of submarine cables and bandwidth was massive, and investors were enthusiastic about telecom companies, believing they would own the internet infrastructure. The problem was that this construction was severely overdone, ultimately leading to a huge bear market. At that time, people even thought the internet was dead, and it took several years to rebuild confidence.

At the same time, a new generation of builders is entering the market. They recognize existing infrastructure and, based on it, seek new creative opportunities, building businesses that can be passed down through generations. This phenomenon illustrates an important theme—consolidation. In 2026, we are likely to continue to see consolidation trends across several key categories. Over the next three years, "survival is key" will be the dominant theme in the industry.

My advice is that builders should be prepared, be as creative as possible, think big, and strive to achieve their goals. Frankly, there are essentially two strategic options for builders: either be acquired, or succeed in their field and integrate. These are currently the two most viable strategic paths.

Looking ahead to 2026

David Hoffman: I think 2025 and 2026 are very important years for strategic deployment, especially for Ethereum . I believe this view also applies to other areas. Regarding Ethereum, I think its L1 protocol performed quite well this year, for example, with zk EVM. Everyone is talking about Ethereum, and its development speed is faster than we expected.

Perhaps we've already advanced the zk EVM by one to two years, which allows us to significantly reduce block generation speed in 2026. There are still a number of technical improvements to be built, delivered, and released for the Ethereum protocol, which I believe will be implemented in 2026. By the end of 2026, I expect Ethereum's L1 protocol to be better positioned to capture growth opportunities in areas such as tokenization and Wall Street. Whatever happens on-chain in the future, Ethereum will become a more suitable technical protocol.

Furthermore, I think we can discuss the Clarity Act, which hopefully will pass in 2026. This would allow the entire cryptocurrency industry to better position itself to capitalize on the potential of tokenization. Even Solana deserves mention. Solana has finally integrated with Firecanver technology. This technology needs time to truly integrate and be accepted by the market.

I believe 2025 and 2026 will be quiet years of setup; there won't be any frenzy, and no one will suddenly become incredibly wealthy because of cryptocurrency. If someone does become rich, it will be an isolated case, an exception. We are collectively working to put all the elements on the table the right way, preparing for potential value capture in the coming years. I think this is characteristic of a post-bubble era, a time to reorient ourselves, to build the infrastructure in the right way, and to prepare for future growth.

Mike Ippolito: I completely agree. I think it's a positive sign. There's often an atmosphere when people talk about these things: yes, these things will eventually happen, it's inevitable. But at the same time, people get frustrated because they can't get 100x returns on altcoins.

However, I would argue that, in the long run, building real wealth now may be easier than in 1995. Over the past five years, almost no one has made money in the cryptocurrency space, even though they may publicly claim to have profited handsomely. The reason is that it's an extremely difficult investment environment, with very few assets offering stable returns.

Aside from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, almost all other assets are more like trading instruments than investment targets. I know there are exceptions, but overall, I remain very optimistic. I believe we've finally entered an environment where truly sustainable growth can be built, and the winners who can achieve compound growth will reap enormous rewards.

Therefore, when we talk about the future, this potential pull effect is very exciting, and this is the best time for the crypto industry in the past eight years.

David Hoffman: I think we all know that during a cycle, when people are bored, tired, or worn down by the market, it's actually the best time to persevere. If you can weather those difficulties, then you'll be in a favorable position. I remember in 2019, the situation was that everyone involved in the Ethereum ecosystem was basically only focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum. While there were Cardano and Ripple communities, the Solana community wasn't as active.

For example, if you hold on and Ethereum positions itself reasonably, you can benefit from the DeFi summer. And you just need to weather the bear markets of 2017, 2018, and 2019 to get there, because everyone else has already left. As a result, opportunities in the market become incredibly plentiful because there aren't many competitors. My feeling is that this will happen again because people are being worn down by the market, and the market isn't generating investor enthusiasm.

David Hoffman: Your 27 industry predictions cover different ecosystems, and we'll try to discuss them one by one. Before we officially begin, how do you think we should guide the audience?

Mike Ippolito: I think we can start by focusing on some general themes . For example, we'll be validating or overturning some long-held beliefs in the industry. In the past, the crypto market was a relatively irrational, very early market where, in most cases, creating real value wasn't a prerequisite, and therefore there were no effective feedback mechanisms.

While it wasn't clear which ideas were right and which were wrong in the past, I believe many things will be clearly decided by 2026. I also think 2026 will be a year of consolidation for several key categories. We've seen similar situations in the past. My favorite example is the primary brokerage business sector.

Furthermore, I think another theme is the convergence of the stock market and cryptocurrencies. I'm referring to the possibility of seeing something like equity futures in 2026, although I'm skeptical about the actual implementation of this model. However, I believe cryptocurrencies will evolve towards a more fundamental and real-value-based approach, while the stock market will also adopt some characteristics of cryptocurrencies. I believe this convergence has already begun.

Investor relations in the crypto space

David Hoffman: Let's get to the first topic. This is a current topic—investor relations are becoming increasingly important. Investors will demand standardized financial disclosures. While investor relations will draw on some aspects of traditional investor relations, it will also pay more attention to social media and community, ultimately redefining its performance in the stock market. This is exactly what you mentioned, that community management in investor relations may merge with traditional stock markets, and traditional stock markets may realize this and think, "We need to do the same."

Mike Ippolito: Yes, I think people need to build a mental model. When a company doesn't have a publicly traded financial instrument, it only has one product, which is its business. But once it launches a publicly traded financial instrument, such as a token or stock, the company's CEO or founder actually has two products: one is the business, and the other is the financial instrument. This means you need to constantly tell the market the story of this asset and make everyone understand it.

You have your business products and your financial instruments. This means you need to constantly tell the market the story of this asset, to everyone. You need narrative management; businesses can't expect "just build it and they'll come." Therefore, in addition to ensuring your products and business make sense to investors, you need to continuously tell the market the story of this asset. Historically, this narrative management has typically been comprehensive and systematic.

However, I've also observed that the stock market operates very well in some aspects, such as standardized financial reporting systems (like GAAP), which provide a uniform accounting standard for all American companies. But at the same time, there are also some things that seem very outdated, such as using old software to get Zoom links and holding meetings with a group of analysts.

A few years ago, CoinShares was a decent company. As a European-listed company, they at least used to conduct quarterly earnings releases via Twitter Spaces. Now, we're starting to see protocols or companies like EtherFi taking a similar approach. I actually saw Vlad Tenev say a few days ago that they're rethinking Robinhood's investor relations, planning to make it more community-driven while leveraging social media channels. Therefore, I think the crypto space will pick up some principles, such as standardized processes and involving analysts. But in the long run, the stock market may realize this and start rethinking how they operate.

David Hoffman: We've seen Coinbase and Robinhood hold Apple-style product launches this year, kind of like they're showcasing their products. This really aligns with what you mentioned: we need to control our narrative . This approach directly targets the audience interested in Robinhood. For Robinhood investors, they can clearly see, "Yes, we did launch new products this year, and this is what we've accomplished." I recall Coinbase holding at least a few similar events, such as the Base launch and some recent new product unveilings. They directly communicate these things to their audience and explain why these products are worth investing in.

Mike Ippolito: I think this is a big change this year, and I have two related predictions. I think there will be a lot of discussion about GAAP accounting standards this year.

GAAP, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. There's an old joke about accountants: A hiring manager is interviewing accountants. The first person comes in and is asked, "What are these numbers?" He gives his answer and leaves. Then the second person comes in and answers, "This is what I think these numbers should be." Finally, the third person is asked the same question, and he answers, "What do you expect these numbers to be?" And he gets the job.

This joke illustrates the significant flexibility in accounting practices. Even among the many data providers in the crypto space, standards are highly inconsistent, with different companies reporting vastly different revenue figures. This necessitates a universally accepted standard to clarify how revenue is handled, how costs are calculated, and how this data is aggregated into the cash flow statement.

Of course, accounting treatment offers a degree of flexibility, but there are also rules that dictate what can and cannot be done. These rules constitute the accounting treatment accepted by publicly traded companies in the United States. However, for cryptocurrency companies, the burden remains too heavy, and meeting such standards is extremely difficult. While some lighter solutions may emerge, I believe there will be much discussion about GAAP accounting standards this year, but the industry as a whole is still far from reaching that standard; the difficulty of improvement is simply too great.

There has been considerable discussion about dual-token equity structures. My long-term prediction is that in 90% of cases, this structure is simply not feasible. It's merely a legacy structure originating from the SEC under Gary Gensler , and even predating the J. Clayton era. Essentially, it's a remnant of attempts at some form of regulatory arbitrage. However, many mental models built upon this structure have failed to work.

We've seen many public battles, like the one with Aave. I think these battles will continue. Meanwhile, I think Uniswap deserves high praise in this regard. They've taken a very brave and difficult step, and I deeply sympathize with them. I'm not targeting Aave specifically; it's a very difficult thing because it involves unlocking the results of a lot of already done work, but the market may need some time to push protocol leaders to take action. I don't expect all these issues to be resolved by 2026. We might start hearing some discussions, and some protocols—especially those with less organizational or governance burdens—may quickly follow Uniswap's lead. But I think most protocols will likely remain hesitant.

However, I do believe that investors will begin to publicly question these protocols and may develop a negative view of those that employ dual-class and token structures.

The Evolution of Income Discussions

David Hoffman: Let's move on to our third prediction for 2026. The discussion about revenue will gradually shift towards durability and quality. Companies that can generate more predictable revenue will gain market recognition for the first time. Enterprise software will become popular in the crypto space. Could you elaborate on that?

Mike Ippolito: I'm pleased to see that our industry is starting to focus on revenue discussions. If you've listened to discussions in the stock market, you'll find a point I strongly agree with: not all revenue is created equal. In the stock market, certain types of revenue are given higher valuation multiples, and this is usually related to the quality of the revenue.

So, how sticky is the revenue? Is the revenue repeatable? Does 80% of the revenue come from a single customer? Is the revenue highly cyclical? All these different characteristics will be broken down and analyzed to assess the business moat that investors typically care about, and the level of risk a company faces in its revenue structure.

We haven't even talked about profit margins yet, but I think there's a similar phenomenon in the crypto industry. We've often made the mistake of annualizing the revenue peaks when we see them climbing on the charts, or overvaluing the highest points of cyclical revenue. For example, a counterintuitive phenomenon when focusing on cyclical stocks is that they are actually cheapest when they look most expensive, and most expensive when they look cheapest.

This argument has been widely circulated, and as an industry, we've consistently made the mistake of overvaluing highly cyclical revenue. I believe investors will gradually stop trusting this unreliable revenue model, and that's actually the right direction. I think this will drive the entire industry to focus more on sticky and high-quality revenue. You know, this revenue model is actually very rare in the crypto space. While some companies are indeed experimenting, they haven't fully succeeded.

These on-chain products may have tokens or other revenue streams, but I believe we will see more efforts to drive stickiness and high-quality revenue in the future. Because the fact is, not all revenue is created equal.

Future Development of DATS

David Hoffman: We move on to our fifth prediction: DATS will essentially do nothing. Some companies may try to make acquisitions in infrastructure and attempt to transform into operating companies, but these efforts won't really be successful. You predict 2026 will be a weak year for DATS, which I think is consistent with the current state of the industry. But will there be exceptions?

Mike Ippolito : I'm not taking too much risk on this prediction, but I do think DATS will face considerable challenges in 2026. However, I think the only possible exception is Tom Lee 's DATS. I think Tom Lee has done an excellent job in this area; he has a very high reputation on Wall Street. I also think this is closely related to the natural rebound of Ethereum's core metrics, which may generate investor interest.

Please note that this is absolutely not financial advice; everyone should do their own research. However, I think if there's one DATS worth watching, it might be Tom Lee's. Furthermore, I believe you'll see some DATS attempting to transform into revenue-generating operating companies.

However, I believe many cryptocurrency companies are experiencing something similar. Some of the most high-profile categories once enjoyed huge speculative premiums, but as they attempt to transition to more fundamental models capable of creating real value, they unfortunately must reassess their performance against new metrics. It's fair to say that some of these DATS have already undergone this reassessment; after all, the performance charts of most DATS in the market don't look promising.

However, I still believe it will take some time for the market to start rewarding this structure. There's a completely different story to tell beyond "I am Soul plus lots of extra Beta ETH plus extra Beta." I think this will take a long time, but I do believe you'll see some DATS try to move towards a more sustainable structure, such as making acquisitions related to staking or yield.

Venture Capital (VC) Investment Trends

David Hoffman : Your sixth prediction is that venture capital (VC) investment will be weak. It is predicted that investment will decrease slightly in 2025, from an estimated $25 billion to $15 billion to $20 billion.

Mike Ippolito: It is indeed declining. Looking back at 2020, we peaked at around $30 billion in 2021, so I would say it's a downward trend now, and 2021 was a local maximum. We are still recovering from a lot of the excess from the past. I should point out that venture capital doesn't behave exactly the same way in equity financing and crypto as in traditional models. Typically, investing in earlier stages of a company involves more risk, right?

This can be viewed as a churn rate. Only a fraction of companies can advance from Series C to Series A, and only a fraction can advance from Series A to Series B. Therefore, the traditional view is that investing in early-stage projects is riskier. However, this logic doesn't necessarily hold true in the crypto space, because you can quickly acquire liquidity, and very few token projects generate genuine long-term value.

In reality, the opposite is true. The earlier you get in, the less risk you take, because you can resell your tokens later at a higher price, sometimes even a very high one. But I think the current situation is that with so many tokens available, the entry barrier for investors is much higher than before.

Frankly, I believe speculative capital is shifting to other areas. The responsibility now lies in creating real value, and traditional risk-based pricing models will re-emerge, with winners continuing to dominate. In major categories such as prediction markets, exchanges, lending protocols, and DEXs, the strategy will shift from "Uniswap has taken off, and now there are Uniswap clones on Solana, Avalanche, and Sui; I'm going to fund these projects and flip these tokens" to "I'm betting on Uniswap because it has a moat; they will continue to win because the competition is becoming more difficult and the barriers to entry are higher. " This is already starting to show on Ethereum and Solana, where the barriers to entry are now so high that these victories will continue to compound, and you will begin to see growth equity gradually enter this space.

Prediction Markets: The Victory of Existing Firms

David Hoffman: When it comes to prediction markets, Kalshi and PolyMarket will continue to dominate. Other decentralized exchanges will try to enter, but no new players have made any real progress. Consistent with what I just said, I think established players will win here, and there are even more established players than Kalshi. If you can call Kalshi an established player, then Robinhood will hold the majority of the prediction market share.

Mike Ippolito: I also have a prediction related to prediction markets, namely that they will continue to be successful in 2026, but I expect sentiment to shift. I think there will be a lot of criticism regarding sports betting, and as a cultural phenomenon, it may receive negative coverage. Nevertheless, overall trading volume will continue to grow.

I've seen many venture capitalists predicting tenfold market growth, but I think a growth rate closer to two times is more realistic. Part of the reason, frankly, is purely sentimental. I believe predicting the market presents a real challenge. So I think we're currently at a local maximum, but I remain optimistic about structural trends.

I believe the moats in the crypto space have become very deep this year. However, I have one prediction to make: the concept of "all-in-one" apps will become very powerful . I think Coinbase, Robinhood, Hyper Liquid, and some Asian exchanges are all considering this direction. In fact, we've seen SEC Chairman Paul Atkins mention similar "all-in-one" apps like Alipay in China multiple times. I think this will have a profound impact. For example, we've seen Robinhood leverage Kel She 's advantages, but frankly, they have far more leverage in this arrangement. Furthermore, Coinbase also plans to enter the prediction market space.

I admire Coinbase, but I think Robinhood has a stronger focus and better execution on its product—in fact, much better. At the end of the last cycle, Coinbase made many different attempts in multiple directions. Their expansion was very broad, and while Brian and his team did an excellent job trying to integrate these attempts, there were still some failed projects. For example, they launched an NFT project similar to OpenSea, but it wasn't successful. I think they are indeed trying to consolidate these attempts and focus their efforts, and I'm watching to see if Coinbase will continue to try in multiple directions. That's why I'm slightly less optimistic about Coinbase's prospects in the prediction market space, but I think Robinhood's capabilities should never be underestimated.

David Hoffman: I also think the first thing Coinbase needs to do is completely rebuild their app, including the web and mobile versions. Their interface is very cumbersome and lacks the clean design of Steve Jobs .

David Hoffman: Now let's move on to the ninth and tenth predictions, which I'll discuss together. The ninth prediction is that Hyperliquid will continue to perform well, but its growth may slow, while the perpetual contract market will become extremely competitive. New trading platforms, as well as existing exchanges like Coinbase, will successfully capture some market share.

The tenth prediction is that while equity perpetual contracts will receive widespread attention in 2026, their development will be relatively slow. They are expected to outperform decentralized exchanges (DEXs) on centralized exchanges, and trading volume for perpetual contracts is not expected to exceed 5%.

Mike Ippolito: Perpetual contracts are indeed a very hot area, but it's difficult to pinpoint its moat, and the competition is fierce. You can see this market remaining highly fragmented for a very long time, much longer than almost everyone expected. DEXs already have very strong existing competitors, such as Binance's advantage in CEXs.

Meanwhile, there are many new and established perpetual contract exchanges, such as Lighter, but their competitive advantages are not obvious, and it feels like these platforms are all vying for the same market share. I think this is a very difficult area, and there is no clear market leader yet. Regarding equity perpetual contracts, although there is a lot of anticipation, I think its promotion and widespread adoption may still take time. I do believe that this trading method will gradually become the future trend. For traders, this approach is very intuitive because they may not want to trade cryptocurrencies and stocks separately on multiple platforms, but rather want to be able to complete all transactions on a single platform.

However, I believe changing many people's habits won't be easy. For example, I personally am not a trend-following investor, nor do I have much desire to change my usual trading style. Switching from trading stocks on one platform to trading cryptocurrencies on another would require a significant effort. Furthermore, frankly, I still trust crypto trading platforms less than I do traditional ones. Therefore, I think this shift may be much slower than many expect. But I believe it's an inevitable trend that will eventually materialize.

However, I predict that this field will still be in its early stages of development until 2026.

Ethereum's resurgence

David Hoffman : Let's move on to the eleventh prediction: Ethereum's Layer 1 will experience a resurgence in 2026 and dominate the real-world asset issuance market, such as government bonds and Bitcoin. Trading volume will see a slight increase, with more growth coming from government bonds and new real-world assets. Why do you believe Ethereum L1 will experience a resurgence?

Mike Ippolito: I think 2026 will be Ethereum's year, while Bitcoin may have a bad year, Solana will have a relatively quiet year, and Hyperliquid will face challenges. The reason is that building these ecosystems is indeed very difficult.

I have a personal theory that nothing is truly universal. People used to describe Bitcoin as a general-purpose chain, but now they see it more as a chain focused on monetary applications. I think we're starting to see a divergence between Ethereum and Solana, with Ethereum becoming more of an asset issuance chain and Solana more of an on-chain price discovery venue for decentralized exchanges. Therefore, I think this trend will continue, but it's worth noting that every chain experiences its own ups and downs. I think Ethereum just went through a very difficult period, but it has successfully emerged from it. This period helped Ethereum shed some players with differing ideas, creating a sense of cohesion and unity, and I think Ethereum has found a use case that truly fits the market.

As for Bitcoin, it has always had its advantages, but from a market sentiment perspective, I think the price may need to adjust here for a while, which will affect the overall market sentiment . However, Bitcoin also faces some real challenges, such as quantum computing. I believe quantum computing will become a major threat to Bitcoin this year, which will likely spark much discussion. While I am not an expert in this field, from a pattern-matching perspective, I think developers will eventually find a solution. By the end of next year, we may feel that we at least have a clear direction, rather than falling into existential panic.

I believe Bitcoin will underperform gold this year because gold typically performs better in these economic environments. We are currently facing a depreciation trend, but this depreciation is more like an economic slowdown or even stagflation, and gold tends to outperform gold during periods of monetary easing.

Bitcoin may perform even worse in stagflation years. The outperformance of gold, a natural correction in Bitcoin's price, and the threat of quantum computing could all contribute to a depressed sentiment for Bitcoin this year.

As for Ethereum, we've just gone through a period of great uncertainty. I think Ethereum has made many mistakes over the past few years, but it has still achieved some successes. One thing Ethereum has generally done well is that, as a base layer, it supports many modular builds. However, its mistakes lie in path dependence and capacity requirements, which ultimately led to a very complex situation where it was difficult to determine whether to build on L1 or L2.

Nevertheless, Ethereum still demonstrates strong market fit. Particularly in the RWA-related space, many developers want to build on Ethereum, making it very attractive in this important category. I am very optimistic about Ethereum's performance over the next few years; I think it will perform exceptionally well. However, I also have a separate prediction regarding Ethereum's infrastructure, which I believe will be very challenging to develop.

I believe Solana will face some challenges this year. Its performance in the memecoin space is lackluster, and it faces competitive pressure from Hyperliquid, which excels in price discovery. While Solana has some price discovery capabilities in memecoins, it falls short in price discovery for other assets.

To make DEX more effective in the internet capital markets, Solana needs to regain some market share from Hyperliquid and CEX. I believe some of the technologies they've rolled out are moving towards returning fees to applications, and I think these technologies will work. Therefore, I think 2026 will be a quiet year of construction for Solana, with not much hype or significant changes. I predict Rev will continue to decline in the first half of this year, but may rebound in the second half of 2026.

As for Hyperliquid, they don't face a real survival challenge, nor do they need to confront strong competitors like other general-purpose chains. However, I think they will face some difficulties against well-organized competitors like Robinhood, but will continue to compete with other projects around the world. Hyperliquid will continue to increase speed and offer more incentives, but maintaining market share will become very difficult.

The quantum threat facing Bitcoin

David Hoffman: Your 17th prediction was that quantum computing would become a very real threat and garnered widespread attention this year because Bitcoin Core developers might delay responding. While the actual threat of quantum computing will take time to materialize, we must use all the time to steer Bitcoin in the right direction. However, this view initially faced strong resistance from many Bitcoin Core developers and Bitcoin influencers. They always tried to convince people that Bitcoin was safe, that its price would continue to rise, and that there was no risk involved.

I believe the discussion about quantum computing has begun and will become increasingly real. However, I actually think we may have reached a local peak in the discussion about quantum computing for Bitcoin last month and this coming month. This is because quantum computing itself isn't actually a direct threat in 2026; the concept of quantum mechanics is the potential threat.

With advancements in quantum technology, such as Google potentially announcing an innovative technique that could increase the number of logical qubits tenfold, the concept of Bitcoin could face even greater threats. Nevertheless, some experts believe the first quantum computer capable of having a real impact on the crypto industry is expected to emerge around 2032. That's six years from now. Therefore, I predict we'll see a surge in quantum computing discussions, but the real quantum threat may not materialize until the early 2030s. Like some movie titles suggest, the true "quantum threat" may not appear until the early 2030s.

Mike Ippolito: I think this concern manifests as market forward-thinking. Even though 2032 is still a long way off, it's not that far off either. Bitcoin's price may experience a mean reversion. When price adjustments happen, people usually look for narratives to explain them. Therefore, I think the market may use quantum computing as an excuse.

However, I'm generally not overly concerned about these long-term threats. Frankly, some technical issues are beyond my comprehension. People should look to more specialized sources like Alex Pruden or Nick Carter . Risks almost always come from unexpected places because for a market sell-off to occur, there must be unaddressed risks, and a rapid repricing is necessary. I believe the market is already quite clear on the potential impact of quantum computing, which is why I think any price fluctuations will occur in advance, and why this issue will remain a challenge this year.

People really shouldn't blindly believe in this long-term threat; instead, they should seek out expert sources who are more qualified than I am.

David Hoffman: One of my predictions for 2026, and possibly for the end of this decade, is that quantum computing will not just be a cryptocurrency issue; it will have an impact on society as a whole. For example, other sectors, such as the internet, can be updated to address the threat of quantum computing. The internet can be updated, and centralized websites and companies can directly update their encryption standards to avoid the threat of quantum computing.

Nevertheless, quantum computing remains a societal issue. So it's not just the crypto industry that's paying attention to quantum computing; society as a whole is. Everyone's saying that quantum computing is coming, and it might disrupt things. And it's not just the crypto industry discussing this; society as a whole is focused on quantum computing. This will make the topic of quantum computing even more important in the 2030s.