Binance Report: Expectations of accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are beneficial for Bitcoin; January may be a turning point in the bearish trend.
PANews reported on January 8th that Binance Research's January crypto market report indicated that despite the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies, the crypto market continued its decline in December 2025 due to investor caution. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum's market dominance continued to strengthen as asset management firms continued to increase their holdings. January could be a turning point for the bearish trend, as investors consider shifting back to cryptocurrencies from overvalued asset classes. In 2025, metals are expected to be a top-performing asset class, driven by factors such as monetary easing, AI demand, and a shift towards "commodity control." While Bitcoin also benefited from similar macroeconomic positives, its performance diverged in the fourth quarter due to the lack of a "strategic asset premium." However, this divergence may be temporary: as US legislation pushes towards institutionalizing a strategic Bitcoin reserve and potentially shifts from holding seized assets to active fiscal procurement, Bitcoin's valuation framework is expected to realign with that of strategic metals.
Market participants anticipate accelerated monetary easing in 2026, driven by factors such as tariff shocks, a fragile labor market, and a dovish leadership shift. This necessitates a higher long-term premium to compensate for "fiscal dominance" and the impending debt burden exceeding $50 trillion. A steepening yield curve indicates market skepticism regarding the Fed's "soft landing" narrative, creating a favorable opportunity for Bitcoin to capitalize on both the influx of cheap short-term liquidity and the long-term erosion of fiat credit. Since their inception, altcoin ETFs have largely attracted net inflows, totaling over $2 billion, with XRP and SOL leading the way, while other assets have contributed smaller but steady inflows. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows since October, highlighting a divergence in marginal demand as market momentum slows. While still in its early stages, the approval of more altcoin ETFs and continued inflows could increasingly impact liquidity distribution, especially if broader market inflows accelerate again. By 2025, six newly launched stablecoins are projected to surpass $1 billion in market capitalization. As stablecoins continue to be used globally, their related metrics are increasingly becoming an important indicator for measuring global financial activity.
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