Amazon earnings preview: the number AWS must beat for AMZN stock to rally

If there’s one thing Microsoft’s recent earnings report made abundantly clear, it’s that investors have zero tolerance for stalling cloud growth, given billions being funneled into AI infrastructure.

Naturally, therefore, all eyes are on Amazon Web Services as the tech behemoth warms up to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 5th (after market close).

While Amazon stock has held up relatively well in 2026, its continued ascent hinges on whether AWS can prove its recent reacceleration is sustainable.

Heading into the quarterly print, AMZN shares are up nearly 10% versus their November low.

Why beating consensus won’t be enough for Amazon stock

For AMZN stock to rally post-earnings, meeting the “official” consensus may prove insufficient.

While FactSet analysts are projecting revenue of $211.4 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.97, the whispered “bogey” for AWS is much more aggressive.

The market consensus for AWS growth currently sits at 21%, but top analysts from Deutsche Bank and UBS have signalled the real benchmark for the stock to break out is 23%.

Beating 23% would signal Amazon is successfully converting its big artificial intelligence backlog into realised revenue – effectively silencing critics who labelled it an AI laggard last year.

How to play AMZN shares heading into Q4 earnings

According to UBS analyst Stephen Ju, while it may not be super convenient for AWS to beat the 23% mark, its long-term potential still warrants buying Amazon shares at current levels.

The multinational remains committed to doubling its capacity by 2027, which Ju believes the market “hasn’t priced in yet.”

Amazon’s recent landmark deals with OpenAI and Anthropic also made Jefferies’ senior analyst, Brent Thill, maintain a buy rating on AMZN this week.

“AWS offers one of the clearest growth reacceleration narratives” that could push the company’s share price to $300 over the next 12 months, he told clients in a recent report.  

More broadly, enterprise sentiment is rebounding as Amazon scales its Project Rainier data centres, which makes the AI stock even more attractive as a long-term holding, Thill added.

Final verdict: execution over excuses

Ultimately, Amazon’s Feb. 5 report needs to be a clean sweep. Beyond cloud, investors will look for signs that AI is boosting margin in the ads business and driving efficiencies in the retail delivery network.

If the giant can deliver a “beat and raise” fuelled by AWS growth above that critical 23% mark, it will solidify its position as a top outperformer for the remainder of 2026.

However, if growth merely meets the 21% consensus, AMZN shares may struggle to maintain their recent momentum against the backdrop of rising capital expenditures.

In this high-stakes AI environment, Amazon.com Inc must prove that its massive investments are translating into high-velocity growth, or risk being left behind by its more agile big tech rivals.

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