COMP Weekly Analysis Feb 6

COMP closed the week with an 11.81% drop, remaining in a weak position at the $16.50 level; while the downtrend structure dominates, oversold RSI (18.21) signals short-term reaction buys, but bullish reversal remains weak without a trend break.

COMP in the Weekly Market Summary

COMP traded in the $14.69 – $18.81 range last week and continued its primary downtrend with an 11.81% loss. Volume profile remained low at the $36.88M level, indicating continued selling pressure. Momentum indicators (RSI 18.21) are in the oversold region, but MACD with a negative histogram gives a bearish signal. The market is stuck below EMA20 ($21.48), and in the general macro context, Bitcoin’s downtrend is pressuring altcoins. This week, the critical support test is forefront for detailed COMP spot analysis; risk management is priority for position traders.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure exhibits a clear downtrend; the price is moving within a bearish channel characterized by lower highs and lower lows on weekly and monthly charts. COMP, continuing below major moving averages (EMA50, EMA200), failed to break the $20.77 resistance, and this level preserves the bearish bias as a trend filter. From a market cycle perspective, we are in a correction phase continuing from the distribution phase at the end of 2025; lack of upside momentum confirms the long-term trend remains intact. From a portfolio manager perspective, confluence should be awaited for long positions in this structure, as premature entries carry high risk.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis shows dominant distribution patterns in recent weeks: High-volume sales occurred at the $18.81 peak, and the $16-17 band forms resistance as a high volume node in the volume profile. However, oversold conditions with RSI 18.21 may signal the start of a potential accumulation phase – according to Wyckoff methodology, a spring test (false breakdown) at these levels can give an accumulation signal. Still, in the downtrend context, distribution pressure prevails; for accumulation, staying above $14.69 support and volume increase confluence are essential. When examining COMP futures market data, the decline in open interest supports the sellers.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, while the price consolidates around $16.50, 10 strong levels were identified (1D: 2S/2R). Main supports $16.20 (score 62/100) and $14.69 (77/100) show confluence; RSI divergence potential could form a bounce setup. MACD histogram narrowing implies a momentum shift, but bearish short-term trend remains intact below EMA20. Daily pivots make $17.30 resistance (72/100) the first test point – volume confirmation is essential for breakout.

Weekly Chart View

From the weekly perspective (1W: 2S/3R), the downtrend channel dominates: The price rejected $19.42 resistance (62/100) and completed the decline aligned with lower timeframe supports. Supertrend gives a bearish signal, with upside objective $27.09 remaining distant while downside risk points to $5.21. Multi-TF confluence makes $14.69 a major inflection point; bearish bias is preserved unless weekly close stays above this level. This confluence for COMP and other analyses is critical in determining position sizing.

Critical Decision Points

Main support levels: $14.6900 (high score 77/100, multi-TF confluence), $16.2000 (62/100, volume node). Resistances: $17.3047 (72/100, daily pivot), $19.4225 (62/100, weekly channel top), $20.77 (trend filter). These levels are inflection points that will define direction: Above $17.30 signals bullish shift, below $14.69 triggers accelerated downside. For risk/reward calculation, upside $27.09 / downside $5.21 should be taken as base – current R/R ~1:4 favors bearish.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Upside

Bullish scenario: If $17.30 resistance breaks and weekly close occurs above $19.42, long entry around $17.50 targeting $27.09 (score 13). Stop-loss below $16.20; with RSI divergence and volume increase confluence. For position traders, BTC stabilization is essential – partial profit should be taken at $20.77, EMA20 crossover at $21.48 awaited for trend change.

In Case of Downside

Bearish scenario: If $16.20 support breaks, short entry at $16.00, targeting $14.69 test and $5.21 extension. Stop above $17.30; with MACD confirmation. In the downside phase, allocation should be reduced for portfolio protection – if $14.69 is not held, distribution accelerates.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $65,829 level with -7.06% drop in downtrend; key supports $62,910 / $60,000, resistances $65,848 / $71,040. While BTC Supertrend is bearish, altcoins like COMP show high correlation (%0.85+) – if BTC breaks below $62k, COMP $14.69 test accelerates. BTC dominance increase creates alt pressure; BTC above $71k is essential for recovery. Position traders should monitor BTC $60k hold for COMP bounce.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: Weekly close in the $14.69 – $17.30 range, RSI bounce vs. breakdown. Volume profile and BTC movements will be decisive; trend structure remains downtrend. Critical: $16.20 support, risk-off approach recommended with macro caution.