Silver traded near $75.73 as of writing, down 23.7% over the past seven days but up 1.5% in the last 24 hours as prices attempted to recover from a brutal sell-off. The metal rebounded from a low of $65.06, with intraday trading stretching as high as $77.21.
Despite the turbulence, silver still shows a 56.7% gain over the past three months. Can a market fall this fast and still hold its long-term structure?
Crash Leaves Silver Far Below Its Peak
The recent decline pushed silver well below its all-time high of $121 per ounce. Even after the rebound, prices remain about 37.5% under that peak.
Source: CoinCodex
Yet London bullion traded around $76.65 per ounce, higher than any New York Comex futures contract through July. That pricing gap signaled tight availability of physical silver as investors stepped in to buy the dip. London lease rates echoed the strain, jumping to 6.3% annualized for one-month borrowing.
Physical Tightness Returns to Focus
While far from the extreme conditions of October 2025’s silver squeeze, current stress resembles last year’s market dislocation. During that episode, banks and traders rushed silver into New York amid fears of U.S. trade tariffs.
Market participants now point to renewed physical demand as bargain hunters returned following the crash. Former Tokyo trader Bruce Ikemizu said recent action suggests a potential bottom may be approaching.
Several forces converged to trigger the sell-off. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve helped stabilize the U.S. dollar. Investors view Warsh as an orthodox choice, which reduced expectations for aggressive policy easing. That shift cooled momentum across precious metals.
At the same time, JPMorgan analysts reported heavy reductions in momentum-driven long positions, with silver facing the sharpest unwinding.
JPMorgan noted that silver saw severe long liquidation over the past week, while gold positioning proved more resilient. Equity exposure remains elevated by historical standards, leaving risk assets vulnerable if sentiment deteriorates further.
Bond positioning, by contrast, remains depressed, creating a backdrop that favors fixed income over stocks in the near term. Currency data also show investors still positioned for U.S. dollar weakness, despite recent volatility.
Forecasts Set a Price Support
JPMorgan analysts projected a silver floor between $75 and $80 per ounce this year, arguing the metal remains unlikely to surrender all recent gains. Goldman Sachs echoed caution but acknowledged that tight supply continues to magnify price moves.
CoinCodex forecasts silver at $161.89 by the end of 2026 and $197.31 by 2030, compared with current levels.
Where Does Technicals Point Next?
Market technicians noted a sharp change in sentiment. A recent Bloomberg analysis showed that the last time silver traded near $65 in December, the 14-day RSI approached 80 amid optimism.
Source: Bloomberg Via X
Today, RSI sits near 30 as fear dominates. The contrast highlights how quickly market psychology flipped, and now, the question that remains is: Is Silver finding its bottom after a forced liquidation?
For now, silver trades at the center of volatility, supply stress, and global uncertainty. The next move hinges on whether fear fades, or tight supply takes control again.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14369/silver-price-forecast-silver-hits-65-then-rebounds-but-can-bulls-defend-the-75-80-floor
