Bitcoin Falls Below Key Level That Defined Past Market Cycles

According to a report shared by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has dropped below a structural on-chain support level that has historically separated bull and bear phases across previous market cycles.

That level sits near $89,800, representing the realized price of a specific cohort of mid-weight traders, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, with coins last moved within the past one to three months. This group is considered large enough to influence price direction, yet active enough to reflect current market sentiment.

Bitcoin has not traded above this realized price since mid-January 2026.

Why This Cohort Matters

In prior cycles, the realized price of this group acted as a dividing line between constructive consolidations and full bear market transitions.

During the 2021 cycle, when Bitcoin set an all-time high near $67,551 in November 2021, this cohort’s realized price stood around $33,700. Importantly, Bitcoin never broke below that cost basis during the mid-cycle correction.

Because these traders remained in profit, broader market conviction held. The realized price functioned as a structural floor. The bear market only confirmed months later, in June 2022, when Bitcoin fell roughly 30% below their cost basis, eventually reaching $18,945.

What’s Different Now

The current cycle shows a break in that historical pattern.

This same cohort’s realized price peaked near $94,000 in late 2025. Bitcoin slipped below that level in mid-December 2025 and has not recovered. As of February 18, 2026, BTC trades near $66,424, placing price roughly 26% below the average acquisition level of these active mid-sized holders.

That shift matters structurally. When this group sits in sustained unrealized loss, historical data suggests market weakness tends to persist rather than resolve quickly.

Comparisons to the mid-2021 correction overlook a critical difference: in 2021, this cohort was never underwater. Today, it is, and by a significant margin.

Until Bitcoin reclaims and sustains price above $89,800, the on-chain structure tied to this group’s cost basis remains unrepaired. According to CryptoQuant’s framework, that level, not short-term volatility, is the threshold that will determine whether the broader market regains structural strength.

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