Why the Latest Bitcoin Selloff Looks Different From Past Cycles

• Bitcoin’s worst cycle drawdowns have compressed from -92.7% in 2011 to just -68.5% in 2022.
• Bitcoin demand flipped positive at +1,200 BTC after bottoming near -154,000 BTC in December 2024.
• Fear and Greed sits in single digits, yet structural data suggests this selloff differs from 2018.

Bitcoin is down roughly 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Fear and Greed Index readings sit in single digits. 

Google searches for “BTC to zero” have hit five-year highs. ETF outflows are mounting, and analysts are calling for prices as low as $25,000. But according to data shared by crypto analyst Sminston With on X, this moment may not be what it looks like on the surface.

Bitcoin’s Drawdown History Tells a Deeper Story

Sminston With animated 15 years of Bitcoin drawdown data to give the current selloff some context. 

The visualization tracks every single day Bitcoin has spent at each drawdown depth from an all-time high. What it reveals is a clear, long-term pattern of gradual change.

Early cycles were brutal. Bitcoin bottomed at -92.7% in 2011. The entire histogram, as Sminston With describes it, was little more than a thin red smear. Almost all of Bitcoin’s short existence at that point was spent deep underwater.

By 2013 to 2015, another cycle pushed that red tail even further. The distribution filled in heavily between -60% and -80%. Over 1,500 days were spent in drawdown during that stretch. Most of them were painful by any measure.

Going into 2017, Bitcoin made a brief all-time high near $11,562. Yet with 2,524 drawdown days logged, red still dominated the chart. Then came 2018 and another -78.4% collapse. The -60% to -80% band filled in further. This was the story of old Bitcoin.

Each Cycle Bottom Has Been Less Severe Than the Last

Then something began to shift. By 2021, the green bars near the 0% drawdown zone started growing noticeably. Bitcoin was spending more time close to its highs than it ever had before. The distribution was migrating left.

Sminston With points out that each cycle’s worst drawdown has become progressively shallower. The sequence reads clearly: -92.7%, -87%, -84%, -77%, and then -68.5% in 2022. That is a consistent, cycle-over-cycle compression of downside severity.

The 2022 bottom was still deep. Still painful. But it was the shallowest major bottom in Bitcoin’s history at the time. The floor kept rising. The green kept growing. The red tail was still there, but shrinking as a share of the whole.

Where the Current Selloff Fits in the Data

Right now, Bitcoin sits about 47% below its October 2025 peak. Sentiment is at its worst level since June 2022. Many market participants are asking whether this is a repeat of 2018. Sminston With says, probably not.

Bitcoin has spent a structurally larger share of time in the near-zero drawdown zone than in any prior cycle. Green and white oscillations are replacing the deep red plunges. The dives into severe drawdown territory are getting shallower with each passing cycle.

The analyst acknowledges that prices could still go lower from here. Nothing in the data rules that out. But the trend, as Sminston With frames it, is clear. The downside is compressing. Whether the market believes that right now is a separate question entirely.

Bitcoin Demand Is Starting to Shift Too

On the demand side, crypto commentator CryptosRus shared data showing that Bitcoin’s apparent demand has flipped positive for the first time in nearly three months. The metric now sits around +1,200 BTC, a notable shift from where things stood in December.

Back then, demand bottomed near -154,000 BTC. That reading explained much of the sluggish, grinding price action seen during that period. Selling was heavy. Long-term holders were not absorbing new supply at any meaningful rate.

CryptosRus notes that when this metric turns deeply negative, the market struggles. When it turns positive, the foundation starts rebuilding. Selling is cooling. Structural accumulation is beginning to re-emerge. 

One print does not make a trend, but historically, a demand recovery at this stage has been one of the earliest signals of a market transitioning from distribution back toward accumulation.