Cardano at Risk of Breakdown as Price Tests Multi Near Support Again

TLDR

• ADA trades near a three year support level around $0.240.

• Price fell 3.5 percent today as Bitcoin dropped below $65,000.

• Grayscale increased ADA’s share in its Smart Contract Fund to 20.34%.

• ADA’s MVRV and Open Interest show lower trader participation.

Cardano has moved closer to a multi-year support area as broader market weakness continues. The asset is down 3.5% today and trades near the $0.240 zone, which has served as a major level during past market cycles. This decline follows a brief drop in Bitcoin below $65,000 that added pressure across altcoins.

The ADA price has been in a steady downward pattern for months. The current move places the asset on track for a sixth monthly pullback, and the extended decline has brought renewed attention to its long-term support base.

ADA Price Approaches Multi-Year Support Zone

The multi-year support area formed during the previous cycle’s bear market. Cardano reached a base near $0.240 and remained within that zone for months. Attempts to fall below this level have been rare, with a drop to $0.220 in June 2023 failing to break the zone.

From this support, Cardano grew from $0.239 to its bull market peak of $1.320 in the last cycle. This move showed the strength of the zone, although ADA has since given back most of those gains. The asset now trades close to the same support again.

Source: X

On February 6, a market-wide decline pushed ADA to $0.220 before buyers stepped in. Some analysts see this point as a possible bottom for the current correction. They argue that the market may enter a longer consolidation phase if the support holds.

Other analysts believe a breakdown remains possible. Mercury, a widely followed market commentator, said he is watching how ADA reacts if the level is lost. He noted that price reactions near multi-year zones often depend on market sentiment and momentum.

Cardano Price Possible Levels Below Support

If ADA falls below the support, the chart suggests limited support until $0.17. Cardano traded near this level in late 2020 during its preparation for a major rally. The zone acted as a consolidation area for weeks before the move that sent the price toward $3.10.

A further support area sits near $0.10. This level was last seen in November 2020. A move toward that point would represent a large retracement from the current price. Analysts note that such a move would likely depend on broader market stress.

These levels are being discussed as the asset tests a zone that has held firm for years. Market behavior around these areas remains driven by liquidity, sentiment, and macro-level moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Institutional Buying Continues Despite Weak Price

While retail traders show caution, institutional interest has increased. Grayscale has raised Cardano’s share in its Smart Contract Fund to 20.34%. This makes ADA the fund’s third-largest position, after Solana and Ethereum.

Data shows that the fund has increased Cardano’s share from about 18.5% in early 2026. Because the fund follows rules that require rebalancing, the adjustments resulted in steady purchases. This has occurred during a period when ADA’s price has fallen more than 22% in one month.

Source: Grayscale

The move indicates interest from long-term investors. Grayscale continues to maintain exposure to Cardano despite market pressure. This action contrasts with the behavior of many retail traders, who appear more focused on short-term price changes.

Market Indicators Suggest Mixed Conditions

Cardano’s MVRV ratio has dropped sharply. This indicates that many holders are now at a loss.

Past market cycles show that low MVRV values often occur near the later stages of downward trends. Long-term holders usually remain during such periods.

Open Interest has also fallen, suggesting that speculative activity has dropped, and fewer short-term traders remain. When both price and Open Interest fall at the same time, markets often adjust before forming a new trend.

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