Stocks and Crypto Under Pressure as Iran War Drives Oil to $100 and Markets Brace for Fed Decision

TLDR

• Oil topped $100 a barrel as Iran continued strikes on energy infrastructure, including setting a UAE gas field ablaze
• Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures were mixed Tuesday, swinging between gains and losses
• Brent crude jumped near $104; US diesel topped $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022
• Bitcoin and crypto markets are watching Wednesday’s Fed meeting closely, with a 99% chance rates hold steady
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced $1 trillion in projected chip sales through end of 2027 at the GTC event

Iran’s war with Israel kept oil prices elevated on Tuesday, sending shockwaves through stocks and crypto markets ahead of a key Federal Reserve decision.

Dow Jones futures hovered just below the flat line in early trading. S&P 500 futures dropped about 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell roughly 0.2%. The moves followed Monday’s tentative stock rebound, which quickly stalled.

Oil prices were the main driver. Brent crude jumped to just below $104 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $96. Both are up sharply as the conflict in the Middle East continues with no end in sight.

Iran struck energy infrastructure, setting a large UAE gas field on fire. Israel said it killed Iran’s security chief, further raising tensions in the region.

US diesel crossed $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022. Supply disruptions from the Gulf are being blamed for the spike.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked by Iran. President Trump asked US allies to join a multinational effort to escort tankers through the waterway, but several countries have said no.

Fed Meeting and Rate Expectations

The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. A policy decision and comments from Chair Jerome Powell are expected Wednesday.

Markets are pricing in a 99% chance that rates stay where they are, according to CME FedWatch. The oil-driven inflation surge has pushed back any hopes of near-term rate cuts.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are closely watching the Fed. Rate decisions have historically moved crypto prices, as traders weigh the impact of tighter or looser monetary policy on risk assets.

Just weeks ago, inflation data was trending in the right direction. The surge in energy prices has now complicated that picture for the Fed and other central banks worldwide.

Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Chip Forecast

On the corporate side, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made headlines at the company’s GTC event. He announced a string of new deals and said Nvidia expects $1 trillion in chip sales through the end of 2027.

Investors were also watching earnings reports from Tencent, DocuSign, and Oklo, all due Tuesday.

Stock futures briefly turned green in morning trading as oil pulled back slightly from its highs. WTI touched $98.42 before settling around $95.28.

Analyst Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group noted bulls were fighting hard to keep futures positive despite overnight pressure from oil prices.

At the time of writing, WTI crude was trading at $94.60, slightly off its session highs, while equity futures remained volatile.

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