SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 05: Jonathan Kuminga #00 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after making a basket and getting fouled by the Houston Rockets in the second half at Chase Center on December 05, 2024 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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One of the marquee storylines of the 2025 offseason is the stalemate currently taking place between the Golden State Warriors and restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga.
On Monday, NBA Insider Shams Charania published an article detailing the discussions between the two parties. From reading it (which you should if you haven’t already), it seems there is a huge disparity between how Kuminga’s camp perceives his value and how the Warriors feel about the situation.
This makes sense as Kuminga has been one of the most polarizing players in the league since being selected by the Warriors with the seventh overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. On one end, Kuminga averaged 24.3 PPG in the Western Conference Semifinals in the Warriors’ four games without Stephen Curry. But on the other, his lack of off-ball value and questionable defense made it hard for head coach Steve Kerr to fit him into the rotation when Golden State was fully healthy.
This begs the question: how much should a player like this be paid?
The Ideal Salary For Jonathan Kuminga
As Charania’s report highlights, there is a lot more at play here than just the average annual salary included on the deal. There are team options and no-trade clauses to consider, too. But for the sake of simplicity, we are going to forget about all that for a minute and focus on isolating his on-court value.
As I’ve often referenced on this website, I have a formula that seeks to estimate a player’s production value based on their estimated impact on winning and the amount the average win costs in a given season. To learn more about this formula, be sure to check out this article here.
Anyway, if we assume that Kuminga performs the same way he did last season in 2025-26, he would be worth roughly eight million dollars. Coincidentally, that is also the amount of the qualifying offer that Kuminga can choose to take if the two parties fail to reach a resolution. However, that number isn’t completely accurate, as it fails to account for the fact that Kuminga missed 35 games in 2024-25. Given his track record (he’s never missed more than 15 games in a season before that), this isn’t very emblematic of his durability as a player.
If we use his 2023-24 performance instead, Kuminga looks more like an 18.2 million dollar player in 2025-26. The issue there is that figure may be overstating his value to the Warriors next season. In 2023-24, Kuminga started 46 of his 74 games – something that probably won’t happen in 2025-26 (unless one of the Big Three misses a significant amount of time).
There is also the issue that Kuminga is only going to be 23 years old and, in theory, is still yet to play his best basketball. So, using past numbers to try to project his future value could be severely underestimating his true impact on winning.
What Should Happen?
In an ideal world, I would take the two numbers we spat out earlier and offer him a multi-year deal with an average annual figure somewhere in the middle of that (so about 13-15 million per season). This gives Kuminga long-term security while allowing the Warriors to figure out what they want to do with him.
Unfortunately, we don’t live in an ideal world, and Kuminga’s representation isn’t going to look at numbers like these and concede that Kuminga shouldn’t be paid like a rising star. This is why I believe, if the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings are serious about organizing a sign-and-trade for Kuminga, the Warriors should do it in a heartbeat.
If that possibility isn’t still on the table, then I think the Warriors should sign Kuminga to the qualifying offer, duck the first apron, lock-in Al Horford/Gary Payton II/De’Anthony Melton/Seth Curry, and let him test free agency in 2026. I get not wanting to risk losing a valuable asset for nothing, but it beats offering Kuminga a contract that likely won’t age well.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/matissa/2025/09/15/what-should-jonathan-kumingas-next-contract-look-like/
