Avalanche (AVAX) Price Prediction: Trendline Break Sparks Recovery Hopes as Bulls Eye $11+ Breakout

AVAX is showing early signs of a bullish reversal after a trendline breakout and accumulation signals.

Despite trading within a broader range, AVAX has shown resilience around key support levels, signaling cautious optimism among traders. With a recent trendline breakout and early accumulation signals emerging, market participants are now watching closely to see whether Avalanche can build enough momentum for a sustained breakout.

According to Brave New Coin data, Avalanche is currently trading near $9.52, up around 4.7% over the past 24 hours.

AVAX Trendline Break Signals Shift in Momentum

From a technical standpoint, AVAX has recently broken out of a descending trendline on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum.

Avalanche breaks a key descending trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum with upside targets coming into focus. Source: behdark via X

As highlighted in behdark’s chart, the structure indicates a completed corrective phase, followed by early stages of potential recovery. The breakout opens the door for a move towards higher resistance levels, with upside targets sitting near:

Pullbacks towards the $9.20–$9.00 region may act as potential re-entry zones if the structure continues to hold. However, a breakdown below the invalidation level near $8.45 would weaken the bullish setup and suggest continuation of the broader downtrend.

Wyckoff Structure Suggests Accumulation Phase Is Underway

Adding to the bullish narrative, brilliantpanicc presents a Wyckoff-style interpretation of AVAX’s recent price action, suggesting the asset may be transitioning from a distribution phase into accumulation between $9.50-$8.00.

According to this framework, price now appears to be in the late accumulation stage, where selling pressure has already weakened, and demand is slowly building, which is why AVAX has avoided a drop below $8.00.

AVAX forms a Wyckoff accumulation range, hinting at a potential shift towards a markup phase. Source: brilliantpanicc via X

This phase is typically followed by a markup move, where the price begins trending higher with stronger momentum. While confirmation is still needed, the current structure aligns with early-stage recovery rather than continued downside.

Market Cap Structure Highlights Strong Long-Term Base

From a macro perspective, Vuori Trading highlights that AVAX has been consistently holding a key $3B–$4B market cap floor, which has acted as a long-term base across multiple cycles.

The chart shows AVAX consolidating around this region for an extended period (over 1,600 days), reinforcing the idea that this zone represents strong accumulation rather than weakness.

AVAX holds a strong $3B–$4B market cap base, signaling long-term accumulation with potential upside expansion ahead. Source: Vuori Trading via X

Using Fibonacci-based projections, Vuori outlines potential upside scenarios:

• $57B market cap (1.618 level)
• $164B market cap (cycle expansion target)

While these targets are long-term in nature, they emphasize the asymmetric upside potential if AVAX transitions into a new bullish cycle.

Holding this macro base significantly strengthens the case that current price action may represent accumulation rather than continuation of the downtrend.

AVAX and Regulatory Clarity

On the fundamental side, Avalanche has recently been mentioned in regulatory discussions as an example of a digital commodity, as shared by the official Avalanche account.

This classification places AVAX alongside assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum within a commodity framework rather than a security-based one. While regulatory developments remain ongoing, such recognition can improve long-term market confidence and institutional perception.

AVAX gains attention as a digital commodity in regulatory discussions. Source: Avalanche via X

Although this does not immediately impact price action, it contributes to a stronger macro narrative supporting Avalanche’s positioning in the broader crypto market.

Liquidity and Reaction Zones in Focus

AVAX price is currently revolving around key liquidity zones, with the $8.80 region acting as a strong demand area where buyers have consistently stepped in. This level remains critical in maintaining the current structure, as a breakdown below it would likely trigger a sweep toward lower liquidity pockets.

On the upside, liquidity is building near the $9.70–$9.80 region, which continues to act as a supply zone. A move into this area could lead to increased volatility, as stop orders and breakout positions cluster around these levels.

Market Bias: Slightly Bullish, But Not Confirmed

From a broader perspective, AVAX appears to be shifting away from strong bearish pressure, with early signs of recovery beginning to emerge. The recent trendline break and higher low formation suggest that buyers are gradually regaining control.

However, the Avalanche structure still requires confirmation. Until price reclaims key resistance levels and sustains momentum, the market remains in a transitional phase. For now, the bias leans slightly bullish, but confirmation is still needed before a stronger trend reversal can be established.