Messi And Inter Miami Are MLS Cup Favorites, But Only Until Kickoff

Inter Miami has the best living player on Earth in Lionel Messi. They have several of his former FC Barcelona teammates, like Jordi Alba, Sergio Busquets and Luis Suarez. They have Tadeo Allende in the form of his life with seven postseason goals, one shy of an MLS Cup Playoff record. And they have the home fans, having earned the right to host this championship match by finishing two points above the Vancouver Whitecaps in the Supporters’ Shield standings.

What they don’t have in Saturday’s MLS Cup final is the luxury of time.

Every dynamic of Saturday’s match suggests that the longer it remains level, the more the dynamics of the game will shift in favor of the Canadian visitors. The Whitecaps will know this. The Herons will know it. And most likely, the rest of us will know it by how the early stages of the match play out, with Messi and Miami likely pressing early for the kind of staggering blow that can keep Vancouver off balance and playing from a position of disadvantage.

Battle of the Benches?

Miami may be a more balanced side since the arrival of Rodrigo de Paul and Mateo Silvetti during the summer transfer window. But Herons boss Javier Mascherano will still remember how an older, less athletic defense was victimized repeatedly in the second half of their two previous matches against the Whitecaps in the Concacaf Champions Cup semifinals this April.

2025 Concacaf Champions Cup Semifinal goals by minute

(Across two matches)

1’ to 30’: Vancouver 1, Miami 1
31’ to 60’: Vancouver 2, Miami 0
61’ to 90’: Vancouver 2, Miami 0

In the two first halves of that cup tie, each side scored a lone goal at home. In the second halves, the Whitecaps outscored the Herons 4-0, repeatedly making Miami pay for an inability to play through pressure.

And Mascherano will still look at his options to change the game off the bench and, even if Luis Suarez is among them, suspect his counterpart Jesper Sorensen has the more dangerous game-changing options.

Sorenson was already able to bring international caliber players Ryan Gauld and Jayden Nelson off the bench in last Saturday’s Western Conference Final victory over San Diego. The potential return of Tristan Blackmon (suspension) and Daniel Rios (injury) could mean even a deeper group ready to influence the game toward the back end of the 90 minutes and possibly into extra time.

Home Crowd Nerves?

There’s also the psychological advantage likely to favor the visitors the longer the match progress evenly. Knowledgeable MLS followers know just how good the Whitecaps are, posting an MLS-best +25.7 expected goal difference during the regular season. But this will be a game played in front of Miami partisans who have seen their team outscore their last three postseason opponents by a 13-1 margin, and will expect more of the same. It’s entirely possible Miami delivers on those expectations. If they don’t, though, that expectation will be replaced with nerves, and the home-field advantage could prove more of a home-field burden.

MLS Cup Home Team Record

(Since 2011)

Games decided in 90 minutes: 8-1
Games decided in 120 minutes: 1-0
Games decided in penalties: 2-2

Perhaps that dynamic explains some MLS Cup finals of recent past.

Since the match became a true home-field affair in 2011, the home team has won eight of the nine games that have been decided in 90 minutes. Only the 2015 Portland Timbers disrupted the trend, thanks in no small part to a famous goalkeeping gaffe from the Columbus Crew’s Steve Clark.

In extra time and beyond, it gets far more dicey for the home sides. Only the 2014 LA Galaxy made an extra time winner hold up. The other four matches went to penalties, where visitors prevailed just as often as the hosts.